BABA(09988) 国信证券·2025-01-14 03:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][11] Core Views - Alibaba is expected to report a revenue of 273.74 billion CNY for 3QFY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5%. The adjusted EBITA margin is anticipated to be 20%, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3][5][11] - The company is focusing on its core business by restructuring and divesting non-core assets, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns. Recent asset sales include a 73.66% stake in Gao Xin Retail for 13.177 billion HKD and a 99% stake in Intime for approximately 7.4 billion CNY [4][6][11] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - For 3QFY25, revenue growth is projected to be stable across various segments: Taobao (3%), International Digital Commerce (27%), Local Services (13%), Cainiao (10%), and Cloud Intelligence (10%) [3][5][9] - The adjusted EBITA profit for 3QFY25 is expected to be 54.805 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 4% [8][11] Financial Adjustments - The revenue forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 have been slightly adjusted to 986.1 billion CNY, 1,080 billion CNY, and 1,182.2 billion CNY, reflecting a minor decrease due to weak domestic consumption [4][11] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to 148.4 billion CNY, 162.2 billion CNY, and 184.1 billion CNY, with adjustments primarily due to increased promotional activities in the AIDC business [4][11] Target Price and Upside Potential - The target price for Alibaba is maintained at 120-127 HKD, indicating an upside potential of 51% to 60% from the current price [4][11]