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新秀丽：全球箱包行业领导者，多品牌多区域发展可期
01910SAMSONITE(01910) 民生证券·2025-01-14 03:16

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Samsonite (1910.HK) [5] Core Views - Samsonite is the world's largest luggage company with a strong recovery post-pandemic, and it is expected to benefit from the overall recovery of the travel industry and macroeconomic improvements [5][3] - The company is focusing on multi-brand and multi-regional development, with significant growth potential in various markets [4][5] Company Overview - Samsonite was founded in 1910 and has grown to become the largest travel luggage company globally, with brands including Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister [10][11] - The company has seen revenue growth from 1.6billionin2011to1.6 billion in 2011 to 3.6 billion in 2019, with a CAGR of approximately 11% [1][17] - In 2023, the company's revenue reached 3.7billion,recoveringtopre−pandemiclevels,withprofitshittingahistoricalhigh[17]BusinessPerformance−Forthefirstthreequartersof2024,thecompany′srevenuedecreasedby33.7 billion, recovering to pre-pandemic levels, with profits hitting a historical high [17] Business Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 3% year-on-year, primarily due to weaker performance in the Chinese market and increased price competition in India [2][31] - The adjusted net profit for the same period decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, but the profit margin remains significantly better than pre-pandemic levels [2][41] Industry Logic - The global travel industry is expected to fully recover by the end of 2024, which will drive luggage consumption [3] - The global luggage market is projected to reach 160.4 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top five luggage companies holding a market share of 30% in 2024 [3] Company Strategy - Short-term improvements are anticipated due to stimulus policies in China and promotional activities [4] - Long-term growth drivers include category expansion and regional penetration, with a focus on increasing the share of non-travel categories [4][5] - The company is also planning a dual listing outside of Hong Kong to improve stock liquidity [5] Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 372million,372 million, 407 million, and 428million,respectively[6]−TheadjustedEPSforthesameperiodisexpectedtobe428 million, respectively [6] - The adjusted EPS for the same period is expected to be 0.25, 0.28,and0.28, and 0.29, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12x, 11x, and 10x, significantly lower than the average of comparable companies [5][6]