HLGF(600346) 东方证券·2025-01-14 06:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Hengli Petrochemical with a target price of 19.81 CNY based on a 2025 average PE of 18x for comparable companies [3][5] Core Views - Short-term profit improvement is expected due to the recent rebound in oil prices, with Brent crude rising from 71 USD/barrel in early December 2024 to around 80 USD/barrel, leading to significant price increases in domestic refined oil products [9] - Long-term dividend capability is highlighted as the company's high-intensity capital expenditure cycle nears completion, with major projects like the 1.6 million-ton high-performance resin and new materials project and the 5 million-ton PTA project entering production stages [9] Financial Forecasts - EPS adjustments: 2024-2026 EPS forecasts are revised to 0.92 CNY, 1.10 CNY, and 1.14 CNY, down from previous estimates of 1.67 CNY and 1.92 CNY for 2024 and 2025 [3] - Revenue growth: 2024E revenue is expected to decline by 1.1% to 232,200 million CNY, followed by a 3.7% increase in 2025E to 240,681 million CNY [7] - Net profit growth: 2024E net profit is projected to decrease by 6.5% to 6,459 million CNY, with a 20% increase in 2025E to 7,748 million CNY [7] Key Financial Metrics - Gross margin: Expected to remain stable at 10.5% in 2024E and 11.1% in 2025E and 2026E [7] - ROE: Forecasted at 10.5% in 2024E, rising to 11.9% in 2025E [7] - PE ratio: 2025E PE is estimated at 13.5x, declining to 13.1x in 2026E [7] Industry and Market Performance - Absolute performance: Hengli Petrochemical's stock showed a 24.47% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 11.12% [5] - Comparable company valuation: The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025E is 18x, with Hengli's target price derived from this benchmark [10] Capital Expenditure and Dividend Potential - Capital expenditure reduction: 2025E capital expenditure is expected to decrease significantly, freeing up more funds for dividends and share buybacks [9] - Dividend capability: The company is positioned to become one of the early manufacturing firms in the chemical industry with strong dividend capabilities [9]