FUTU(FUTU) 交银国际证券·2025-01-14 09:27Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Futu Holdings (FUTU US) with a target price of $108.00, representing a potential upside of 43.2% from the current price of $75.41 [1][5] Core Views - The report highlights that Futu Holdings' current valuation is attractive, with a 2024E P/E ratio of 16x, significantly lower than its US internet brokerage peers [9] - The company's diversified overseas markets and product lines (stocks, equity derivatives, cryptocurrencies, wealth management products) are expected to enhance business stability [9] - The report expects Futu's ROE to remain around 18% from 2024 to 2026, excluding special dividends [9] Financial Performance and Forecasts Revenue and Profit Growth - Revenue is expected to grow from HKD 10,008 million in 2023 to HKD 12,848 million in 2024E, representing a 28.4% YoY increase [7][9] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to grow from HKD 4,572 million in 2023 to HKD 5,419 million in 2024E, an 18.5% YoY increase [7][9] - The report has revised its 2024E revenue forecast upward by 4.2% and Non-GAAP net profit by 2.4% [4] Key Financial Metrics - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 81.9% in 2024E, slightly up from 81.8% in the previous forecast [4] - Net profit margin is projected to be 39.6% in 2024E, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous forecast [4] - EPS is expected to grow from HKD 30.78 in 2023 to HKD 36.49 in 2024E, a 2.6% upward revision from the previous forecast [6] Operational Metrics - The number of funded clients is expected to grow from 1.71 million in 2023 to 2.31 million in 2024E, a 34.9% YoY increase [3][7] - Client assets are projected to grow from HKD 485.6 billion in 2023 to HKD 645.9 billion in 2024E [7] - Trading volume is expected to reach HKD 7.1 trillion in 2024, a 68% YoY increase, driven by active trading in both Hong Kong and US markets [9] Market and Industry Context - The report notes that the Federal Reserve's slower pace of interest rate cuts is expected to stabilize Futu's net interest income, with a 3.7% YoY growth forecasted for 2024 [9] - The company's overseas expansion and product diversification are seen as key drivers of future profitability, particularly in a high-interest-rate environment [9] Valuation and Peer Comparison - Futu's 2024E P/E ratio of 16x is significantly lower than its US internet brokerage peers, making its valuation attractive [9] - The report suggests that supportive economic policies in China could further boost the company's valuation [9]