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关税重启:外部环境与内部预期
交银国际证券· 2025-02-07 10:09
交银国际研究 全球宏观 2025 年 2 月 6 日 全球宏观 关税重启:外部环境与内部预期 特朗普 2.0 版本的加征关税正式启动。2025 年 2 月 1 日,美国白宫宣布对加拿 大和墨西哥征收 25%关税、对中国征收 10%关税,并于 2 月 4 日正式生效,标 志着 2.0 版本的加征关税正式启动。此次加征关税的内容与特朗普两个月前在 社交媒体上宣布的内容保持一致,而加征关税的节奏快于市场预期。同时,加 拿大和墨西哥随即对美国进行报复性关税反制。但仅时隔一天之后,即 2 月 3 日,美国便决定暂停对加拿大和墨西哥加征关税一个月,且称三方就移民与毒 品管制等问题达成协议。 中方的影响与应对?美国对加拿大及墨西哥暂停加征关税后,市场亦预期中美 双方将就关税展开沟通。与此同时,中国已宣布对美国部分商品加征 10%-15% 的关税,于 2 月 10 日起实施,且加强对稀土等资源的出口管制,以及启动对 谷歌的反垄断调查等反制措施,以增加后续的谈判筹码。至 2 月 4 日,针对中 国加征的 10%关税已生效,尽管此次关税低于此前特朗普宣称的 60%,且低于 加、墨两国的 25%,但自 2018 年贸易战以来,美国 ...
康方生物:第三款非肿瘤产品申报上市,依沃西多项实体瘤III期启动,重申买入
交银国际证券· 2025-02-05 02:49
第三款非肿瘤产品申报上市,依沃西多项实体瘤 III 期启动,重申买入 1 年股价表现 买入 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 9926 HK 恒生指数 2/24 6/24 10/24 -40% -20% 资料来源 : FactSet 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 77.55 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 31.80 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 53,421.94 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 1.45 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (1.73) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 59.39 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1834 交银国际研究 公司更新 | 医药 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 2 月 4 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 59.65 | 港元 | 87.00 | +45.9% | | | 康方生物 (9926 HK) | | | | | | ...
民营医疗服务:稳中求进,关注老龄化+供需错配格局下的投资机会
交银国际证券· 2025-01-28 04:38
Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the private healthcare services sector as "Leading" with a focus on investment opportunities driven by aging population and supply-demand mismatch [2] Core Insights - The valuation levels of the private healthcare services sector are currently attractive, with average forward P/E ratios in both Hong Kong and A-shares below historical averages by more than one standard deviation, marking the lowest levels in the past five years [5][7] - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of private healthcare services, supported by policy reforms and demographic trends, particularly the increasing elderly population [5][21][26] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the investment potential in the private healthcare sector, particularly in oncology hospitals, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) hospitals, and specialized clinics such as ophthalmology and aesthetics [5][67] - It suggests a preference for investment in TCM, oncology, and specialized fields with higher growth potential, while maintaining caution in areas with lower entry barriers and increasing competition [5][72] Market Trends - The private healthcare sector has seen significant growth, with private hospitals now accounting for nearly 70% of total hospitals in China, reflecting a strong upward trend in their market share [37][38] - The report notes that the operational efficiency of private hospitals is improving, demonstrating resilience amid external changes [57] Policy Environment - Continuous government support for private healthcare is expected to remain, with ongoing reforms in the medical insurance payment system (DRG/DIP) aimed at enhancing the sector's sustainability [21][95] - The report outlines various supportive policies that have been introduced to promote the development of private healthcare, particularly in underserved areas [96][190] Company Analysis - The report initiates coverage on Gu Shengtang (2273 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 42.00, citing its leading position in TCM and significant growth potential through expansion and acquisitions [34][159] - It also covers Jinxin Reproductive Medicine (1951 HK), giving it a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 3.05, highlighting its strong market position and growth prospects in the assisted reproductive technology sector [293][300] Financial Projections - Gu Shengtang is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 3.995 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 25% from 2024 to 2026, driven by market penetration and increasing patient volumes [289][269] - Jinxin Reproductive Medicine is expected to see revenues reach RMB 3.212 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 9% from 2024 to 2026, supported by expanding service offerings and market demand [384][371]
好未来:学习机旺季带动收入超预期
交银国际证券· 2025-01-26 01:37
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of $13.30, indicating a potential upside of 20.1% from the current price of $11.07 [2][5][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that TAL's revenue exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for quality education services and sales of learning machines, with a revenue of $606 million in Q3 FY25, representing a 62% year-over-year increase [3][9]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth in its educational services, particularly in small class tutoring, and anticipates a revenue increase of 40% in Q4 FY25 [3][9]. - The report projects continued operational efficiency improvements, with an expected adjusted operating profit margin of 3.7% in Q4 FY25, up from 2.2% in the same period last year [3][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for TAL Education Group are as follows: - FY2023: $1,020 million - FY2024: $1,490 million - FY2025E: $2,240 million - FY2026E: $2,815 million - FY2027E: $3,307 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at -76.8% for FY2023, 46.2% for FY2024, and 50.3% for FY2025E [4][17]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in FY2024 with $85 million, reaching $193 million in FY2025E and $310 million in FY2026E [4][17]. - The report anticipates a Non-GAAP net profit of $39 million for Q3 FY25, which is better than market expectations [3][9]. Market Position - TAL's market share in online sales of learning machines reached 28% in December, making it the top seller in this category [3][9]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and brand reputation through continuous innovation and marketing strategies [3][9]. Valuation - The report maintains a conservative growth expectation for learning machine sales, projecting mid-to-high single-digit growth, while educational services are expected to grow at approximately 35% in FY2026 and 20% in FY2027 [3][9]. - The target price adjustment to $13.30 is based on a 25x price-to-earnings ratio for FY2026 and a 1x price-to-sales ratio for learning machines [3][9].
安博:2024年4季度业绩好于预期;租赁需求改善
交银国际证券· 2025-01-26 01:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Prologis (PLD US) with a target price of $134.94, indicating a potential upside of 17.2% from the current price of $115.13 [6]. Core Insights - Prologis reported better-than-expected Q4 2024 results, with a year-over-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) of 101.5% to $1.37 and a core FFO of $1.50, up 19.0% [1][2]. - The company updated its 2025 earnings forecast, projecting EPS between $3.45 and $3.70 and core FFO between $5.65 and $5.81 [1][2]. - Prologis experienced a strong leasing demand, with an overall occupancy rate of 95.8% at the end of Q4 2024 and a tenant retention rate increase of 3.7 percentage points to 78.4% [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, Prologis reported rental income of $1.938 billion, a 10.3% year-over-year increase, and a net operating income (NOI) of $1.499 billion, up 11.2% [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $2.112 billion, reflecting a 22.5% increase year-over-year, while the full-year adjusted EBITDA was $7.162 billion, up 1.6% [1][2]. - The company’s financial health remains robust, with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 4.6 times and a debt-to-total market value ratio of 25.6% as of the end of 2024 [1].
九毛九:公司表现持续承压;积极策略调整预计3月底落地
交银国际证券· 2025-01-26 01:36
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price adjusted to HKD 2.56, indicating a potential downside of 2.3% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [2][10][11]. Core Insights - The company has been facing continuous pressure on its performance, with same-store sales declining significantly across its brands in the fourth quarter. The Taier brand saw a 24.6% year-on-year decline, while the Jiumaojiu brand experienced an 18.5% drop. The company is actively adjusting its strategies, which are expected to be implemented by the end of March [7][8]. - The company plans to close underperforming stores and has already reduced the number of Taier stores by 20 in the fourth quarter. The focus will be on stabilizing the average transaction value and enhancing product innovation to maintain market leadership [7][8]. - Financial forecasts have been adjusted downwards to reflect a cautious outlook, with expected revenues of RMB 6,958 million in 2025, representing a 7.0% growth from 2024 [6][12]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 4,006 million in 2022, RMB 5,986 million in 2023, RMB 6,499 million in 2024E, RMB 6,958 million in 2025E, and RMB 7,744 million in 2026E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -4.2%, 49.4%, 8.6%, 7.0%, and 11.3% respectively [6][12]. - Net profit is expected to fluctuate, with estimates of RMB 49 million in 2022, RMB 453 million in 2023, RMB 201 million in 2024E, RMB 430 million in 2025E, and RMB 659 million in 2026E, showing a significant increase in 2023 followed by a decline in 2024 [6][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.03 in 2022, RMB 0.31 in 2023, RMB 0.14 in 2024E, RMB 0.30 in 2025E, and RMB 0.45 in 2026E, indicating a volatile earnings trajectory [6][12]. Market Performance - The stock has seen a significant decline of 23.62% year-to-date, with a 52-week high of HKD 6.13 and a low of HKD 2.19. The current market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 3,616.54 million [4][6].
Legend Biotech Corp ADR:4Q24 CARVYKTI®销售略超预期,2025年新产能有望持续驱动快速放量
交银国际证券· 2025-01-24 02:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Legend Biotech (LEGN US) with a target price of $76, indicating a potential upside of 119.2% from the current price of $34.67 [2][3]. Core Insights - Legend Biotech's CARVYKTI® sales in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with a year-over-year increase of 110% to $334 million, slightly above the forecast of $322 million. The sales also showed a 17% quarter-over-quarter growth, driven by capacity expansion and market penetration in the 2L+ treatment segment [1]. - The company has treated a total of 5,000 patients with CARVYKTI® across commercial sales and clinical studies, showcasing effective commercialization efforts [1]. - For the full year of 2024, CARVYKTI® sales reached $960 million, and the report anticipates sales to double to $1.9 billion in 2025 due to new capacity coming online and the product's approval in mainland China and more European countries [1]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q4 2024 CARVYKTI® sales were $334 million, a 110% increase year-over-year and a 17% increase quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The sales growth in Q4 2024 improved from 88% in Q3 2024, indicating strong market demand and effective sales strategies [1]. Future Projections - The report projects that CARVYKTI® sales will double to $1.9 billion in 2025, supported by new production capacities and market expansions [1]. - The anticipated approval of CARVYKTI® in China and further commercialization in Europe are key drivers for this growth [1]. Market Position - The report highlights that Legend Biotech's current stock price is undervalued, with market concerns over competitive products being deemed excessive [1]. - The company is positioned as a key recommendation in the pharmaceutical sector, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory and market strategy [1].
宁德时代:盈利能力强劲,新技术和国际化布局助力景气度延续;维持买入
交银国际证券· 2025-01-24 00:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4][13]. Core Views - The company exhibits strong profitability, with new technologies and international expansion supporting continued growth [2]. - The target price has been raised to RMB 314.11, reflecting a potential upside of 21.7% from the current price of RMB 258.00 [1][6][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 361 billion, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, primarily due to falling raw material prices [6][15]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be between RMB 49 billion and RMB 53 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.1% to 20.1% [6][15]. - The company anticipates a net profit margin of 14.1% for 2024, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [6][15]. - The company’s market share in the domestic power battery installation market is projected to rise to 45.1% in 2024, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous year [6][15]. - The company plans to establish 1,000 battery swap stations by 2025, with a long-term goal of 30,000 to 40,000 stations [6][15]. Financial Data Overview - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2022: 328,594 - 2023: 400,917 - 2024E: 361,000 - 2025E: 441,723 - 2026E: 477,305 [3][15]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): - 2022: 30,729 - 2023: 44,121 - 2024E: 50,004 - 2025E: 61,857 - 2026E: 67,358 [3][15]. - Earnings per Share (in RMB): - 2022: 7.18 - 2023: 11.79 - 2024E: 13.36 - 2025E: 16.53 - 2026E: 18.00 [3][15]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through the introduction of new products and technologies in various sectors, including commercial vehicles and energy storage [6][15]. - International production capacity is being established, with the German factory expected to break even in 2024 and the Hungarian factory set to commence production in 2025 [6][15].
哔哩哔哩:游戏流水符合预期,看好盈利潜力释放
交银国际证券· 2025-01-23 01:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Bilibili (BILI US), with a target price adjusted to $24.00, reflecting a potential upside of 40.8% from the current price of $17.05 [1][2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the gaming revenue is in line with expectations and expresses optimism about the potential for profit release. The company has achieved profitability, leading to a switch to PEG valuation based on comparable entertainment and gaming companies [1][6]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced by 3% to RMB 1.87 billion, while the revenue growth for 2025 is expected to be 19% for advertising and 9% for gaming [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of revenue structure optimization and ongoing cost control to enhance profitability over the long term [6][9]. Financial Forecasts - The revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are RMB 26,716 million, RMB 29,688 million, and RMB 31,936 million respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% for adjusted net profit from 2025 to 2027 [5][14]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 36% for Q4 2024, with adjusted operating profit expected to reach RMB 4 billion [6][9]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately $5.55 billion, with a 52-week high of $29.66 and a low of $8.94 [4][12]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue breakdown for Q4 2024E includes mobile games at RMB 1,768 million, value-added services (VAS) at RMB 2,989 million, and advertising revenue at RMB 2,389 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24% for advertising [9][14]. - The report notes that the gaming segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a projected increase in revenue from games in 2025 [6][9]. Market Position - Bilibili is positioned favorably within the entertainment content sector, with a competitive edge in gaming and advertising, supported by product optimization and marketing strategies [1][6][12]. - The report suggests that the stock price has limited downside potential, reinforcing the "Buy" rating based on the company's growth prospects and market dynamics [1][12].