1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2162 HK 恒生指数 交银国际研究 财务模型更新 医药 2025 年 3 月 26 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 39.95 港元 57.00↓ +42.7% 康诺亚 (2162 HK) 司普奇拜首年指引 5 亿销售，多重竞争优势将推动快速放量，维持买入 尽管面临竞争，康悦达有望凭借多适应症获批、快速覆盖核心市场、优于竞 品的临床数据抢占市场份额，公司维持上市首年 5 亿元销售指引。我们下调 目标价至 57 港元，维持买入评级，更多早期管线出海有望催化估值修复。 个股评级 买入 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 46.85 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 27.45 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 11,010.22 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 4.32 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 29.29 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 36.97 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 丁政 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 2.04 | 港元 2.46↑ | +20.6% | | | 京能清洁能源 (579 HK) | | | | | 2024 年经营开支控制优于预期，每股分红仍慷慨 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 20,446 | 20,562 | 21,883 | 23,666 | 25,408 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.1 | 0.6 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 7.4 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 3,150 | 3,343 | 3,703 | 4,134 | 4,550 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.54 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.4 | 6.1 | 11.1 ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 医药 2025 年 3 月 25 日 先声药业 (2096 HK) 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 7.52 港元 11.20↑ +48.9% 2H24 业绩增速复苏，2025 新品集中上市驱动高增长，上调目标价 2H24 公司业绩增速如期迎来复苏，我们预计这一趋势将延续至 2025-27 年， 公司将迎来 6 款创新药上市，同时创新技术平台有望持续产出 BD 出海机会。 上调目标价至 11.2 港元，看好业绩复苏和 BD 催化估值修复。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2096 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 8.42 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 5.12 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 18,697.13 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 3.18 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 5.92 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 6.98 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@b ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Company Limited (1211 HK) with a target price of HKD 503.25, indicating a potential upside of 24.8% from the current closing price of HKD 403.40 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance meets expectations, driven by export expansion and advancements in intelligent driving technology. The report emphasizes the dual engines of growth: increased exports and the democratization of intelligent driving features [2][7]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 777.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 29%. The net profit is expected to reach RMB 40.254 billion, a 34% increase compared to the previous year [7][8]. - The report highlights that BYD's sales volume is anticipated to reach 4.27 million vehicles in 2024, a 41.2% increase year-on-year, with a market share of 33.2% in the new energy vehicle sector [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million RMB) is forecasted to grow from 602,315 in 2023 to 977,249 in 2025E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25.8% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 30,041 million RMB in 2023 to 52,460 million RMB in 2025E, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 30.3% in 2025 [3][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 13.33 in 2023 to RMB 23.28 in 2025E, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][12]. Market Position and Strategy - BYD is positioned as a robust and reliable player in the automotive sector, with a focus on expanding its export markets, particularly in Brazil and Southeast Asia, and enhancing its intelligent driving capabilities [7][8]. - The report notes that the average selling price of vehicles is expected to increase, driven by a higher proportion of premium models and stable pricing in the market [7][8]. - The company is also investing in technology and innovation, with significant increases in research and development expenses, reflecting its commitment to maintaining a competitive edge in the industry [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Biologic Products (1177 HK) with a target price of HKD 4.80, indicating a potential upside of 29.8% from the current price of HKD 3.70 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The adjusted net profit for 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue growth projected at 10.2% year-on-year to RMB 28.866 billion, aligning with market expectations and the company's previous guidance for double-digit growth. The contribution from new products has risen to over 40%, with expectations to launch over 10 new products in the next 2-3 years, driving continued double-digit revenue growth despite a challenging environment of centralized procurement and healthcare cost control [2][6][13]. - The report highlights that the gross profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 81.5%, driven by factors such as group procurement and increased capacity utilization. R&D expenses are expected to exceed RMB 5 billion for the first time, with a slight increase in the expense ratio to 17.6% [6][13]. - The company is entering a phase of significant product launches, with six innovative products expected to be launched in 2024, including four Class 1 new drugs. This is anticipated to increase the contribution of new products to total revenue to 60% by 2025-2027 [6][13]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2025E and 2026E have been adjusted downwards by 2%, with new projections of USD 32.788 billion and USD 37.034 billion respectively. The adjusted net profit for 2025E is projected at RMB 2.971 billion, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [5][6][13]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in gross margins as product transitions are completed, with operational expense ratios expected to stabilize or decrease [6][13]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 15.63%, with a 52-week high of HKD 4.15 and a low of HKD 2.34. The average daily trading volume is approximately 108.74 million shares [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised from HKD 18 to HKD 21, indicating a potential upside of 15.6% [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to return to double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by strategic pricing initiatives that enhance user numbers and order volumes. Despite a short-term decline in gross profit margin in the second half of 2024, improvements in procurement negotiations and increased contributions from self-controlled brands are anticipated to stabilize margins in 2025 [2][6]. - Operating expenses have significant room for reduction through more efficient logistics and automation, which is expected to support a continued upward trend in profit margins. The company plans to maintain a growth rate of nearly 1,000 new stores, with over half of the growth coming from lower-tier markets [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 16,741 million, with a slight decrease of 0.3% from previous estimates. Gross profit is expected to be RMB 4,303 million, reflecting a 0.2% increase [5][14]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 25.7% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected to reach RMB 681 million, maintaining an operating margin of 4.1% [5][14]. - The adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 777 million for 2025, with a net profit margin of 4.6% [5][14]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 0.89%, with a 52-week high of HKD 27.65 and a low of HKD 14.24. The market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 13,469.82 million [4][14]. User Engagement and Market Expansion - The average monthly active users (MAU) and annual transaction users are expected to grow by 17.2% and 24.8% respectively in 2024. The number of factory stores has increased by 965 to a total of 6,874, with lower-tier markets accounting for 58.2% of the store count [6][7]. - The company has also integrated AI models like DeepSeek into its core business operations to enhance store operational efficiency [6]. Summary of Financial Data - The company’s financial data indicates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins over the next few years, with significant growth expected in both revenue and net profit by 2027 [14][15].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 医药 2025 年 3 月 20 日 和黄医药 (13 HK) 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 23.90 港元 44.00 +84.1% 2024 年再次实现盈利，SAVANNAH 注册队列数据优异，维持买入评级 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 13 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 34.70 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 20.25 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 41,079.87 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 6.39 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 5.99 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 26.00 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 尽管年内一次性合作收入下降，但借助呋喹替尼在海外的强势销售表现、以 及有力的费用管控，公司于 2024 年再次实现盈亏平衡。2025 年重点关注 SAVANNAH 美国 NDA 递交、以及内地新产品/适应症扩大上市审 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 消费 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 97.90 | 港元 | 113.30↑ | +15.7% | | | 安踏 (2020 HK) | | | | | | | 2024 年业绩符合预期；2025 年指引营收高个位数至双位数增长 谭星子, FRM kay.tan@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1856 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 62,356 | 70,826 | 77,163 | 84,476 | 90,862 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.2 | 13.6 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 7.6 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 10,236 | 15,596 | 14,080 | 15,916 | 1 ...

公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 540.00 | 港元 | 583.00↑ | +8.0% | | | 腾讯控股 (700 HK) | | | | | | | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 6.6 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 157,688 | 222,703 | 244,774 | 268,648 | 289,453 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 16.33 | 23.53 | 26.34 | 29.31 | 31.91 | | 同比增长 (%) | 37.6 | 44. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA (NVDA US) with a target price of $168.00, indicating a potential upside of 45.5% from the current price of $115.43 [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights NVIDIA's transition towards generative AI, with CEO Jensen Huang predicting that capital expenditures in the cloud service provider (CSP) sector could exceed $300 billion by 2025 and reach $1 trillion by 2028 [2]. - NVIDIA is actively participating in AI transformations across vertical industries, including mobile communications and smart driving, with a vision of establishing "AI factories" for production planning and intelligent assistance [2]. - The company continues to release new products, with significant upgrades in data center offerings, emphasizing the importance of scale-up architecture over scale-out in server design [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for NVIDIA show substantial growth, with expected revenues of $60,922 million in 2024, increasing to $311,585 million by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% [5][14]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from $32,312 million in 2024 to $180,404 million in 2028, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) from $1.30 to $7.30 over the same period [5][14]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in profit margins, with gross margins expected to remain around 75% and net margins projected to increase to 57.9% by 2028 [16]. Product Development and Roadmap - NVIDIA's product roadmap includes the launch of the Blackwell Ultra chip in the second half of 2025, followed by the Rubin and Rubin Ultra chips in 2026 and 2027, respectively, showcasing substantial performance upgrades [6][7]. - The introduction of new switch products, Spectrum-X and Quantum-X, is planned for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with advancements in technology such as optical-electrical hybrid packaging [8]. Market Position and Valuation - NVIDIA's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is noted at 24 times the FY26 earnings, which is considered attractive compared to its historical average of 38 times [6]. - The report emphasizes NVIDIA's strong product and technology advantages, particularly in the early stages of AI deployment both domestically and internationally [6].