HAID GROUP(002311) 东兴证券·2025-01-14 10:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strongly Recommend" rating for Haid Group (002311 SZ) [4][6] Core Views - Haid Group's feed business continues to gain market share both domestically and internationally, with overseas sales opening new growth opportunities [2] - The company is expected to achieve simultaneous growth in domestic and international feed businesses in 2025 [3] - The company's core cost advantage will continue to support its main feed business and further increase market share [4] - The overseas market is expected to replicate domestic success and contribute new growth increments [4] - The company's aquaculture business has shown improved professional capabilities, with low-risk and light-asset operations keeping risks under control [4] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects net profit attributable to shareholders of 4 25-4 8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55 04%-75 10% [2] - The company achieved feed sales of 26 5 million tons in 2024, a 9% year-on-year increase, including 2 1 million tons for internal breeding consumption [2] - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved overseas feed sales of over 1 million tons, a 30% year-on-year increase [3] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4 501, 5 101, and 5 822 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS of 2 71, 3 07, and 3 50 yuan [4] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is expected to be 18, 16, and 14 times, respectively [4] Business Outlook - Domestic feed business is expected to benefit from steady growth in pig inventory and slaughter volume, as well as recovery in aquatic product seedling volume in 2025 [3] - Overseas feed business is expected to continue expanding production capacity and market development in 2025, replicating domestic advantages [3] - The company's pig breeding business has optimized costs significantly in 2024, with a low-risk operating model expected to show relative advantages during the 2025 pig price downturn [3] - The company's high-margin aquatic feed business is expected to bottom out and rebound, with overall feed business expected to achieve both volume and profit growth [4] Market Position - Haid Group's feed sales grew against the trend in 2024, with market share further increasing [2] - The company has achieved production and sales in key aquaculture regions across the country [7]