MYL(600993) 华源证券·2025-01-14 11:57Investment Rating - Buy (首次覆盖) [5] Core Views - Ma Yinglong is a leading brand in the anorectal health sector, with a comprehensive layout in the pharmaceutical industry, medical services, and pharmaceutical commerce [7] - The company's core anorectal products have a strong market position, with a 34% market share in retail pharmacies and 8% in hospitals [7] - The company is actively expanding its health and wellness business, which is expected to become a new growth engine [7] - The company's medical services segment has shown strong growth, with a 33% YoY increase in revenue in 2023 [7] Market Performance - Closing price: 24.55 yuan [3] - Total market capitalization: 10,582.37 million yuan [3] - Circulating market capitalization: 10,564.04 million yuan [3] - Total shares outstanding: 431.05 million shares [3] - Asset-liability ratio: 19.40% [3] - Net asset per share: 9.28 yuan/share [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 3,604 million yuan, 4,066 million yuan, and 4,581 million yuan, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 14.91%, 12.80%, and 12.67% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 564 million yuan, 664 million yuan, and 788 million yuan, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 27.26%, 17.65%, and 18.75% [6] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 1.31 yuan/share, 1.54 yuan/share, and 1.83 yuan/share, respectively [6] - ROE for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 13.73%, 14.60%, and 15.57%, respectively [6] Business Segments Pharmaceutical Industry - Revenue in 2023 was 18.3 billion yuan, accounting for 56% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 64.5% [7] - The anorectal product segment is the main revenue driver, contributing 70% of the pharmaceutical industry's revenue and 78% of its gross profit [47] - The health and wellness product segment achieved revenue of 3.9 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 21% of the pharmaceutical industry's revenue [47] Medical Services - Revenue in 2023 was 3.45 billion yuan, a 33% YoY increase [7] - The company operates 6 directly-owned anorectal hospitals and over 90 Ma Yinglong Anorectal Diagnosis and Treatment Centers [68] - The "Xiao Ma Medical" cloud platform integrates pharmaceutical operations, medical technology, and health data to build an integrated anorectal health ecosystem [68] Pharmaceutical Commerce - Revenue in 2023 was 10.87 billion yuan, a 19.67% YoY decrease, mainly due to business structure optimization [75] - The segment includes pharmaceutical retail and medical logistics, with a focus on the Hubei market [75] - Ma Yinglong Pharmacy, a subsidiary, achieved a net profit of 3.27 million yuan in 2023 [75] Growth Drivers - Channel optimization and increased marketing efforts are expected to drive growth in the anorectal product segment [60] - The health and wellness business is expected to grow rapidly, with a focus on key products such as Ma Yinglong Babao Eye Cream and wet wipes [64] - The medical services segment is expected to maintain steady growth, supported by the expansion of anorectal hospitals and diagnosis centers [81] Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19X, 16X, and 13X for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [85] - Compared to peers such as Yunnan Baiyao, Tongrentang, and Darentang, Ma Yinglong's valuation is relatively attractive [86]