Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7, based on a 12x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Core Views - The company's main brand, Xtep, showed steady growth in Q4 2024, with retail sales increasing by high single digits year-over-year and retail discount levels improving to 70-75% off, compared to 75% off in Q3 2024 [5] - The Saucony brand continued its strong growth trajectory, with retail sales increasing by approximately 50% year-over-year in Q4 2024 and over 60% for the full year [5] - Xtep achieved the highest wear rate among global running shoes at the 2024 Shanghai Marathon, solidifying its leadership in the running market [5] - The company expects steady growth for its main brand and high growth for Saucony, which is anticipated to form a second growth curve [5] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 14,035 million, a slight decline of 2.2% year-over-year, but growth is expected to resume in 2025E and 2026E with increases of 9.8% and 10.0%, respectively [5] - Operating profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 1,879 million, an 18.9% increase year-over-year, with further growth expected in 2025E and 2026E [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 21.8% in 2024E, reaching RMB 1,255 million, with continued growth in subsequent years [5] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 42.2% in 2023A to 45.6% in 2026E, reflecting better profitability [5] Valuation and Market Performance - The company's HKD market capitalization is HKD 15,216 million as of January 14, 2025, with a total of 268,365 million shares outstanding [3] - The stock's 52-week high and low prices are HKD 7.13 and HKD 3.19, respectively, with a current price of HKD 5.67 as of January 14, 2025 [3] - The stock has shown strong relative performance, with a 12-month absolute return of 50.16%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 31.84% [3] Industry Comparison - The company's 2025E PE ratio of 8.4x is lower than industry peers such as Anta (15x) and Li Ning (10x), indicating potential undervaluation [7] - The adjusted average PE ratio for the industry is 12x for 2025E, suggesting that the company's valuation is relatively attractive [7] Strategic Developments - The company has successfully divested its KP business, which is expected to improve overall profitability [5] - Saucony expanded its retail presence with new concept stores in Beijing and Shanghai, further enhancing its brand image and market reach [5]
特步国际：Q4主品牌稳健增长，索康尼保持高增