G-bits(603444) 光大证券·2025-01-15 04:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4][22]. Core Insights - The newly launched game "Wen Jian Chang Sheng" is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth, with a steady performance since its release on January 2, 2025, achieving 440,000 downloads on TAPTAP and ranking 20th on the iPhone game sales chart [1]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts downward for 2024, 2025, and 2026 due to declining popularity of flagship games, with projected net profits of 876 million, 1.026 billion, and 1.153 billion respectively, reflecting decreases of 15.8%, 16.6%, and 18.1% from previous estimates [2]. - The report highlights the innovative 3D art style and reduced player burden in "Wen Jian Chang Sheng," which may enhance player retention and engagement [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.818 billion, a year-over-year decline of 14.77%, and a net profit of 658 million, down 23.48% [2]. - The operating cash flow for the same period was 827 million, showing a slight increase of 0.3% year-over-year [2]. - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 was 859 million, with a year-over-year decrease of 10.36%, and a net profit of 140 million, down 23.82% [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) to be 12.17, 14.24, and 16.00 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [3][17]. - The company’s revenue is expected to recover slightly in 2025, with a forecast of 4.224 billion, representing a growth rate of 14.10% [3][17]. Market Data - The current stock price is 213.66 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 15.392 billion yuan [4]. - The stock has experienced a 3-month turnover rate of 242.4% [4].