Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 7.619 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, with domestic milk powder business being a drag on growth [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is projected to be 275 million yuan, a significant increase of 57.9%, driven by a rebound in domestic milk powder prices and improved cost control in the second half of the year [1][4] - The company's goat milk powder business is expected to see high single-digit growth in revenue, benefiting from new product contributions and strong overseas performance [3] - The overall gross margin is anticipated to improve in 2024 due to stable milk powder prices and better management of sales discounts and product mix [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The milk powder business is expected to decline by 9% year-on-year in 2024, primarily due to a decrease in birth rates and market competition [2] - The goat milk powder segment is projected to grow significantly, with overseas sales expected to maintain over 50% growth [3] - The report forecasts a gross margin improvement due to price stabilization and effective cost management [4] Financial Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 0.15 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12x for 2024, 9x for 2025, and 7x for 2026 [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 351 million yuan and 441 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][12]
澳优：2024年业绩前瞻：24年国内牛奶粉业务仍有拖累，海外市场表现突出