CM BANK(600036) 中泰证券·2025-01-15 08:15Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for China Merchants Bank (CMB) [3][20] Core Views - CMB's revenue decline continues to narrow, with net profit growth turning positive in 2024 [5][9] - Net interest income increased by 2.1% quarter-over-quarter, with loan growth accelerating and interest margins remaining stable [11] - Asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.95% at the end of 2024 [18] - CMB's total assets exceeded 12 trillion yuan, with loan and asset growth rebounding, driven by retail lending recovery in Q4 [17] - Deposit growth was strong, laying a solid foundation for future business expansion [17] Revenue and Profit Analysis - CMB's cumulative revenue in 2024 decreased by 0.5% year-over-year (YoY), compared to a 2.9% decline in Q3 2024 [5][9] - Net profit grew by 1.2% YoY in 2024, reversing a 0.6% decline in Q3 2024 [5][9] - Net interest income declined by 1.6% YoY, but the decline narrowed compared to Q3 2024 [5][9] - Net non-interest income increased by 1.5% YoY, turning positive after a 2.6% decline in Q3 2024 [5][9] Asset and Liability Structure - Total assets grew by 10.2% YoY, with total loans increasing by 5.8% YoY [17] - Total liabilities grew by 9.8% YoY, with total deposits increasing by 11.5% YoY [17] - Loan growth was concentrated in Q1 and Q4, with retail lending expected to drive Q4 growth [17] - Deposit growth was strong, with 941.1 billion yuan in new deposits added in 2024, a significant increase from 2023 [17] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The NPL ratio remained low at 0.95%, with a slight increase of 1 basis point (bp) from Q3 2024 [18] - Provision coverage ratio stood at 411.98%, down 20.2% from Q3 2024, but still at a high level [18] - The loan-to-deposit ratio was 3.92%, down 35 bp from Q3 2024 [18] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - CMB's 2024E-2026E price-to-book (P/B) ratios are 0.99X, 0.86X, and 0.79X, respectively [20] - The 2024E-2026E price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 6.85X, 6.74X, and 6.64X, respectively [20] - CMB's strong retail and wealth management capabilities, along with its corporate culture and team, make it a valuable long-term holding [20] Profit Forecast - The report forecasts CMB's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 1,483 billion yuan, 1,506 billion yuan, and 1,530 billion yuan for 2024E-2026E, respectively [20]