Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kelun-Biotech (6990 HK) with a target price of HKD 252 8, representing a potential upside of 48 8% from the latest closing price of HKD 169 9 [3][7] Core Views - Kelun-Biotech has entered a new commercialization phase with the approval of two key self-developed products: sac-TMT (Jiatailai®), the first domestically developed TROP2 ADC for TNBC, and KL-A167 (Ketailai®), a PD-L1 monoclonal antibody for nasopharyngeal carcinoma [1] - Sac-TMT has a strong competitive moat with multiple indications in breast and lung cancers, including approved use for TNBC and NDA submission for EGFRmt NSCLC, with 4 breakthrough therapy designations in China [2] - The company has a robust clinical pipeline with HER2 ADC A166 and cetuximab A140 under NDA review, and 5 other ADCs in Phase 1 trials, demonstrating its R&D platform strength [2][6] - A mature commercialization team of ~400 people has been established to support product launches [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 1 603 billion in 2024 to RMB 2 889 billion in 2026, representing a CAGR of 34 2% [7] - Gross margin is expected to improve significantly from 49 28% in 2023 to 92% in 2026 [9] - The company is projected to turn profitable in 2026 with net income of -RMB 121 41 million, improving from -RMB 574 13 million in 2023 [9] Valuation - The DCF valuation stands at RMB 49 12 billion, implying a target price of RMB 234 1 (HKD 252 8) [7] - The stock trades at -111 94x 2024E P/E and 19 26x 2024E P/B [9]
科伦博泰生物-B：首款TROP2ADC获批上市，迈入商业化新征程