Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high growth driven by commercialization and milestone achievements, with smooth progress in overseas markets [5] - The company reported a narrowing net loss of 267 million RMB in 2024, a 53.5% year-on-year reduction, with total revenue of 1.933 billion RMB, reflecting a 25.5% increase [7] - The company is entering a commercialization phase with promising data and backing from Merck, indicating potential for increased global value [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.963 billion RMB, 3.007 billion RMB, and 5.363 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 1.55%, 53.18%, and 78.35% [6][8] - The company is expected to achieve a positive net profit of 877 million RMB by 2027, with a significant increase in earnings per share from -2.40 RMB in 2025 to 3.86 RMB in 2027 [6][8] - The company's reasonable equity value is estimated at 81 billion HKD, based on a DCF method with a perpetual growth rate of 2% and WACC of 8.58% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical with a target price of HKD 297.20, reflecting an upward revision of 48.5% from the previous target price of HKD 200.1 [2][22]. Core Insights - The company has entered a phase where R&D collaboration revenue and commercial sales serve as dual growth drivers, with a sales team expanding to 360 members by the end of 2024 [4][15]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.93 billion for 2024, a 25.5% year-over-year increase, with a gross profit of RMB 1.27 billion and a gross margin of 65.9%, up 16.6 percentage points [3][14]. - Regulatory and R&D catalysts are expected to be abundant in 2025, with three NDAs submitted that are likely to be approved within the year, contributing to incremental revenue growth [5][19]. Financial Performance - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to RMB 1.96 billion, RMB 2.98 billion, and RMB 4.47 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of +1.4%, +52.2%, and +49.9% respectively [21]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised to -RMB 280 million, RMB 240 million, and RMB 1.02 billion, showing a significant improvement from previous estimates [21]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash and financial assets of RMB 3.08 billion, reflecting a 21.6% year-over-year increase [3][14]. Product Pipeline and Market Potential - The company has three approved products covering five indications, with ongoing clinical trials for SKB264 and other promising molecules in its pipeline [4][16]. - SKB264 has seen steady sales growth since its market launch in November 2024, with peak sales estimated to reach USD 6-7 billion [16]. - A167, the first PD-L1 inhibitor approved for nasopharyngeal carcinoma, holds significant commercial potential due to the high prevalence of the disease in China [17]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a DCF model with a weighted average cost of capital of 9.4% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5%, leading to a target price of HKD 297.20 per share [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance aligns with expectations, with the core product, Lukan Satuzumab, anticipated to become a blockbuster drug due to its rapid sales growth potential and multiple approved indications [1][4][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.933 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5%, with a significant reduction in annual losses [3][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.093 billion yuan, 4.046 billion yuan, and 6.451 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 8%, 93%, and 59% [7]. - The company expects to reduce its net losses significantly, with projections of -582 million yuan in 2025, -485 million yuan in 2026, and a profit of 836 million yuan in 2027 [7]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -1.20 yuan in 2024 to 3.68 yuan in 2027 [7]. Product Development and Market Potential - Lukan Satuzumab has received approval for two indications and is expected to gain a third indication by late 2025, which will enhance its market potential [4][5]. - The company has established a sales team of over 400 personnel, targeting major hospitals and expanding into lower-tier markets, which is expected to drive rapid sales growth [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned to commercialization, with significant revenue growth expected from the drug Lukanosatuzumab, which was approved in China on November 22, 2024. The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.933 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.5% [6] - The company reported a net loss of 267 million yuan for 2024, a reduction of 53.5% compared to the previous year, indicating improved financial performance [6] - The approval of Lukanosatuzumab for two indications in China and ongoing global clinical trials in collaboration with MSD highlight the company's strong pipeline and potential for future growth [6][7] - Financial forecasts have been adjusted, with expected net losses of 707 million yuan in 2025, 492 million yuan in 2026, and a profit of 512 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's profitability trajectory [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected as follows: 2023: 1,540; 2024: 1,933; 2025: 1,690; 2026: 2,496; 2027: 4,101 [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 49.3% in 2023 to 82.0% by 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [9] - The net profit margin is projected to turn positive by 2027, with a net profit margin of 12.5% [9] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -2.5 yuan in 2023 to 2.3 yuan in 2027 [9] Pipeline and Catalysts - The company is expected to receive approval for additional indications of Lukanosatuzumab in 2025, including 2L HR+Her2- breast cancer and other first-line indications anticipated for NDA submission in 2026 [8] - A166, another drug in the pipeline, is expected to receive approval for HER2+ breast cancer in the first half of 2025 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's 2024 revenue is projected to be 1.933 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.5%. The gross profit is expected to reach 1.274 billion RMB, with a significant increase of 67.8% year-on-year. The adjusted annual loss is anticipated to narrow by 73.7% to 118 million RMB, indicating improved operational efficiency [7] - Multiple products are set to commercialize this year, which is expected to lead to rapid revenue growth. Key products include SKB264, A166, A167, and A140, with approvals anticipated to enhance profitability significantly [7] - The company has a strong cash reserve of over 3.076 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6%, which supports its ongoing research and development efforts [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 1.54 billion RMB, with a projected increase to 1.933 billion RMB in 2024, followed by a decline to 1.783 billion RMB in 2025, and then a substantial rise to 3.559 billion RMB in 2026 and 5.894 billion RMB in 2027 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of 574.13 million RMB in 2023 to a loss of 266.77 million RMB in 2024, with a forecasted profit of 444.17 million RMB by 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -2.53 RMB in 2023 to -1.17 RMB in 2024, and is expected to turn positive at 1.95 RMB by 2027 [1][8] Product Development and Market Position - SKB264, a TROP2 ADC, has received approval for multiple indications in China, with further clinical trials ongoing both domestically and internationally. This positions the company favorably in the competitive landscape [7] - The company is actively pursuing market opportunities for its innovative products, with several key approvals expected to drive future revenue growth [7]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·药品及生物科技(HS) 科伦博泰生物-B（06990.HK） 2024 年业绩公告点评：业绩符合预期，多款 产品商业化放量在即，创新驱动持续向上 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1540 | 1933 | 1783 | 3559 | 5894 | | 同比(%) | 91.62 | 25.48 | (7.76) | 99.61 | 65.61 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (574.13) | (266.77) | (604.97) | (216.79) | 444.17 | | 同比(%) | 6.81 | 53.54 | (126.78) | 64.17 | 304.89 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (2.53) | (1.17) | (2.66) | (0.95) | 1.95 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | - | - | - | - | ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責， 對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 就 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd. 四川科倫博泰生物醫藥股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：6990） 截 至2024年12月31日止年度之 年度業績公告 董事會欣然宣佈本集團截至2024年12月31日 止 年 度 的 經 審 計 綜 合 業 績，連 同 截 至 2023年12月31日止年度的經審計比較數字。 | 財務亮點 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024年 | 2023年 | 變 動 | | | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | % | | 收 入 | 1,933,045 | 1,540,493 | 25.5% | | 毛 利 | 1,273,657 | 759,185 | 67.8% | | 研 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has received approval for the first Trop2 ADC lung cancer indication globally, which aligns with previous expectations [7] - The expansion of indications is favorable for commercialization in China, with the company expected to participate in the 2025 national medical insurance negotiations [7] - The potential of the product is gradually being realized, with ongoing global phase III studies for additional lung cancer indications [7] - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for the company's product commercialization, with several products expected to be approved [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 1,540.5 million RMB - 2024E: 1,746.8 million RMB (growth rate: 13.4%) - 2025E: 1,836.7 million RMB (growth rate: 5.2%) - 2026E: 2,877.2 million RMB (growth rate: 56.7%) [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be negative, with figures as follows: - 2023A: -574.1 million RMB - 2024E: -350.1 million RMB - 2025E: -434.6 million RMB - 2026E: -286.1 million RMB [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -2.53 in 2023A to -1.26 in 2026E [2] - The company anticipates significant revenue from the product Lukanosatuzumab, with projected sales of 47 million RMB in 2024, 960 million RMB in 2025, and 1,886 million RMB in 2026 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has received approval for the first global Trop2 ADC lung cancer indication, which aligns with previous expectations [7] - The expansion of indications is favorable for commercialization in China, with the company expected to participate in the 2025 national medical insurance negotiations [7] - The potential of the product is gradually being realized, with ongoing global phase III studies for additional lung cancer indications [7] - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for the company's product commercialization, with several products expected to be approved [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 1,540.5 million RMB - 2024E: 1,746.8 million RMB (growth rate: 13.4%) - 2025E: 1,836.7 million RMB (growth rate: 5.2%) - 2026E: 2,877.2 million RMB (growth rate: 56.7%) [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be negative, with figures as follows: - 2023A: -574.1 million RMB - 2024E: -350.1 million RMB - 2025E: -434.6 million RMB - 2026E: -286.1 million RMB [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -2.53 in 2023A to -1.26 in 2026E [2] - The company anticipates significant revenue from the product Lukanosatuzumab, with projected sales of 47 million RMB in 2024, 960 million RMB in 2025, and 1,886 million RMB in 2026 [9] Key Assumptions - The company is expected to receive collaboration payments from Merck, totaling approximately 1.7 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026 [8] - The approval of Lukanosatuzumab in November 2024 is anticipated to generate substantial revenue in the following years [8]

突破不断，关注商业化进展与临床数据披露 科伦博泰生物-B(6990) ——科伦博泰生物公司跟踪点评 | [table_Authors] 丁丹(分析师) | 甘坛焕(分析师) | 姜铸轩(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976735 | 021-38675855 | 021-38674878 | | dingdan@gtjas.com | | gantanhuan028803@gtjas.com jiangzhuxuan029022@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880514030001 | S0880523080007 | S0880524080010 | 本报告导读： 公司产品接连获批上市，重磅临床数据陆续披露，首款国产 TROP2 ADC 有望引领 临床迭代。默沙东海外持续加注，新一代重磅品种潜力初现。维持"增持"评级。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ） 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.02.26 52周内股价走势图 -3% 18% 39% 60% ...