Cambricon(688256) 广发证券·2025-01-15 11:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 694.01 CNY and a fair value of 713.98 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter a phase of scale realization in Q4 2024, with significant revenue growth anticipated due to improved supply and demand dynamics [10][11]. - The company forecasts a substantial increase in revenue for 2024, with estimates ranging from 1.07 billion to 1.2 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.8% to 69.2% [10][11]. - The company is projected to achieve profitability in Q4 2024, with net profit estimates between 240 million to 330 million CNY, reflecting a net profit margin of 27.2% to 32.4% [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2022 was 729 million CNY, with a slight decline to 709 million CNY in 2023. A significant increase is expected in 2024, with projected revenue of 1.136 billion CNY, followed by 3.507 billion CNY in 2025 and 5.942 billion CNY in 2026 [2][16]. - The company anticipates a return to profitability by 2025, with net profit estimates of 170 million CNY and 812 million CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively [10][17]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -1.05 CNY in 2024 to 1.95 CNY in 2026 [2][17]. Business Segments - The cloud product line is expected to see a revenue growth rate of 333.3% in 2024, with a projected revenue of 392.4 million CNY, and further growth in subsequent years [14][16]. - The intelligent computing cluster system business is projected to grow at rates of 21.7% in 2024, 165.4% in 2025, and 59.7% in 2026, with a high gross margin of around 72% to 74% [14][16]. - The edge product line is expected to decline, with revenue projections of -36.1% in 2024, indicating a shift in strategic focus towards cloud products [14][16]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned favorably in the domestic AI chip market, benefiting from early commercialization and a growing demand for AI applications [19]. - Recent U.S. regulations limiting the export of high-end AI chips are expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the domestic market [12][19]. - The company is expected to capture a significant market share due to its established presence and the increasing demand for AI chips driven by advancements in AI technologies [19].