INDUSTRIAL BANK(601166) 浙商证券·2025-01-16 00:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a turnaround from a 3% decline in the first three quarters of 2024 [2][5] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to increase by 0.7% year-on-year, although this represents a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the growth rate in the first three quarters [2] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of 2024 is forecasted to be 1.07%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the end of the third quarter [4] - The provision coverage ratio is expected to rise to 238% by the end of 2024, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous quarter [4] Summary by Sections Profitability and Revenue - The company's net profit growth is attributed to improved credit impairment pressures due to the resolution of non-performing assets, while revenue growth is hindered by lower mortgage interest rates and industry-wide margin compression [2][5] Loan Performance - As of the end of Q4 2024, the loan balance is projected to decrease by 0.1% compared to Q3 2024, indicating weakened loan growth momentum due to proactive bill discounting and loan structure optimization [3] - The total amount of non-performing loans is expected to decline by 1% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting improved asset quality driven by the resolution of hidden debts [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for 2025 and 2026 is a slight increase of 0.03% and 1.43% respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of 39.29 and 41.81 yuan [5] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.50 for 2025 and 0.47 for 2026, with a target valuation of 0.70x PB for 2024, leading to a target price of 25.82 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 30% [5]