Drinda(002865) 国金证券·2025-01-16 01:14Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of 90.32 RMB based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading specialized manufacturer in the photovoltaic battery segment, having entered the market in 2021 and rapidly scaling its production capacity to 40GW by the end of September 2024 [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics in the battery segment are expected to improve, with a projected price increase of 20% for TOPCon battery cells by 2025, leading to a recovery in profitability for leading companies [2]. - The company benefits from high trade barriers and low tax rates for exports to the U.S., enhancing its profit margins significantly [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company has established itself as a top-tier manufacturer in the photovoltaic battery sector, with a significant production capacity of 40GW by late 2024, and has ranked first globally in N-type battery shipments [1]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a tightening supply-demand balance in the battery segment by 2025, with a potential price recovery for TOPCon battery cells, which could lead to improved profitability for leading firms [2]. Trade Barriers and Profitability - The company possesses unique overseas production capabilities that allow it to benefit from low tax rates when exporting to the U.S., which is crucial for capturing excess profits in a competitive market [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of -566 million RMB in 2024, followed by 1.38 billion RMB in 2025 and 1.93 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.3 and 6.6 for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's potential to benefit from the recovery in battery segment profitability and the commencement of its Oman production capacity, which is expected to yield high profits in the U.S. market [4].