STO(SZ:002468) China Post Securities·2025-01-16 01:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant improvement in performance in 2024, with a forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders of 950 to 1050 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 178.8% to 208.2% [4] - The express delivery business volume is projected to grow rapidly, reaching 174.5 billion pieces in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21%. The company is expanding capacity and improving service quality, leading to a market share increase [5] - The company has achieved notable cost reductions and efficiency improvements through refined management and scale effects, resulting in performance that slightly exceeds market expectations [6] - The company is expected to maintain a high growth trend in 2025, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 of 1000 million, 1420 million, and 1700 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 194.5%, 41.9%, and 19.7% respectively [7] Financial Summary - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 10.77 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 16.5 billion yuan [3] - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 40.924 billion yuan, with expected revenues of 49.441 billion yuan in 2024 and 56.924 billion yuan in 2025, indicating growth rates of 21.54%, 20.81%, and 15.14% respectively [8] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 340.7 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 1003.25 million yuan in 2024 and 1423.65 million yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 18.41%, 194.47%, and 41.90% respectively [8]