兴业银行：盈利增速回正，资产质量向好

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strongly Recommended" [1][21]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to grow by 0.12% year-on-year, indicating a return to positive profit growth primarily driven by provisioning [4][8]. - Revenue growth remains under pressure, with a projected increase of 0.66% year-on-year for 2024, affected by narrowing interest margins and adjustments in existing mortgage loans [8]. - The company's total assets are expected to grow by 3.47% year-on-year by the end of 2024, with loan balances increasing by 5.05% [4][8]. - The deposit total is projected to increase by 7.69% year-on-year by the end of 2024, maintaining a steady growth rate [8]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to decrease to 1.05% by the end of 2024, indicating an improvement in asset quality [8][18]. - The company aims to create a differentiated business model through a "commercial bank + investment bank" strategy, highlighting a dividend yield of 5.25% [8]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company anticipates a net interest income of 152,455 million yuan, with a net profit of 78,201 million yuan [18]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 3.76 yuan, with expected growth rates of 1.4% for 2024, 5.5% for 2025, and 7.8% for 2026 [8][19]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 5.3 for 2024, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to be 0.54 [8][19].