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药明合联:日升月恒,2024业绩增速超预期
WUXI XDCWUXI XDC(HK:02268) HTSC·2025-01-16 05:55

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi XDC (2268 HK) [1][8] Core Views - WuXi XDC's 2024 revenue and adjusted net profit are estimated at RMB 3.93 billion and RMB 1.11 billion, respectively, exceeding previous expectations [2] - The company's global competitiveness in ADC CRDMO is strong, with robust demand and orderly capacity expansion [1][2] - The report expects continued high growth in overseas revenue and orders in 2H24, driven by the company's leading position in the ADC CRDMO field [2] Performance and Growth - Revenue and adjusted net profit for 2024 are projected to grow by 85% and 170% YoY, respectively [1] - The company has 12 Phase III projects, with 9 entering the PPQ stage, and more projects are expected to advance to PPQ in 2H24 [2] - Commercial production for some projects is anticipated to begin in 2025, further driving revenue growth [2] ADC Market Demand - ADC CRDMO demand is expected to grow significantly as ADC molecules progress to late-stage clinical trials and commercialization [3] - Three ADC drugs are under FDA review, and four have submitted applications in China, with approvals expected within the next year [3] - MNCs are actively conducting global registration trials, increasing demand for late-stage clinical production [3] Capacity Expansion and Margin Improvement - The XBCM2 production line, with an annual capacity of 60 batches of 2,000L antibody intermediates and 80 batches of 1,000L conjugated drug substances, was launched in December 2024 [4] - Additional capacity expansions, including XDP3 in Wuxi and Singapore, are expected to be completed by 2025-2026, further supporting commercial production and improving gross margins [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are revised to RMB 1.11 billion, RMB 1.51 billion, and RMB 1.83 billion, respectively, reflecting an 11%, 5%, and 2% increase from previous estimates [5][13] - The target price is raised to HKD 43.55, based on a 1.14x PEG ratio for 2025, reflecting a 25% premium due to the company's strong competitive position in the global ADC industry [5][15] Financial Metrics - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 3.93 billion, with a YoY growth of 85.08% [7] - Net profit for 2024E is estimated at RMB 1.05 billion, a 269.84% YoY increase [7] - ROE is expected to improve to 17.53% in 2024E, up from 8.18% in 2023 [7]