兴业银行：经营业绩回稳，资产质量改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 23.71 [8][10]. Core Views - The company's operating performance has stabilized, with revenue and net profit for 2024 expected to grow by 0.66% and 0.12% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a recovery compared to previous quarters [1][2]. - The asset quality is improving, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.07% at the end of 2024, which is consistent with the beginning of the year and shows a slight decrease from the previous quarter [3][19]. - The company has a clear development strategy focusing on "green banking, wealth management, and investment banking," which is expected to support its valuation premium [5][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total assets, loans, and deposits are projected to grow by 3.5%, 5.1%, and 7.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating continuous growth in scale [2][19]. - The company reported a stable dividend per share, with a dividend payout ratio increasing to 29.64% in 2023, and a dividend yield of approximately 5.25% as of January 15 [4][21]. Asset Quality - The company has maintained a robust provision coverage ratio of 238% at the end of 2024, reflecting a strong buffer against potential loan losses [3][19]. - The gradual improvement in asset quality is expected to allow the company to manage expenses effectively and balance impairment provisions, thereby supporting profit release [3][19]. Valuation Metrics - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 are RMB 3.72 and RMB 3.72, respectively, with a projected book value per share (BVPS) of RMB 39.56 for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.50 [5][21]. - The report suggests a target PB ratio of 0.60 for 2025, reflecting the company's strategic clarity and expected valuation premium compared to peers [5][14].