Yanjing Brewery(000729) 光大证券·2025-01-16 05:55Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Yanjing Beer [5] Core Views - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.0-1.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.11%-70.62%, exceeding market expectations [2][3] - The company has implemented significant reforms under the leadership of Chairman Geng since 2022, resulting in a sustained net profit growth rate of over 50% for three consecutive years, well above the industry average [2] - The decline in raw material costs in 2024 has positively impacted profit margins, with malt and glass prices decreasing by double digits compared to 2023 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Yanjing Beer is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.041 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 61.44% in 2025 and 22.39% in 2026 [4] - The company's net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 is reported at 11.79%, which is significantly lower than industry peers, indicating room for improvement as reforms progress [2][3] Sales and Market Strategy - Despite a general slowdown in the beer industry, Yanjing Beer has managed to increase sales through product optimization and a focus on high-end and youth-oriented strategies, particularly with the U8 product line [3] - The U8 product line has shown rapid growth, becoming a key driver of revenue, with marketing efforts including a new endorsement campaign featuring actress Guan Xiaotong [3] Profitability and Valuation - The report raises the 2024 net profit forecast to 1.041 billion yuan, a 6% increase, while maintaining projections for 2025 and 2026 at 1.274 billion yuan and 1.551 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected at 0.37, 0.45, and 0.55 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 30x, 25x, and 20x [3][4]