JH Group(603518) 广发证券·2025-01-16 07:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 9.21 CNY and a fair value of 13.37 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 4.395 billion CNY, down 3.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.02% to 307 million CNY [3]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 shows a positive turning point, with revenue of 1.472 billion CNY, up 1.63% year-on-year, and net profit of 145 million CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 35.72% [3]. - The company is expected to achieve faster growth in 2025 due to favorable domestic policies, brand momentum, and ongoing channel innovations [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022: 3.899 billion CNY - 2023: 4.545 billion CNY - 2024E: 4.395 billion CNY - 2025E: 4.868 billion CNY - 2026E: 5.392 billion CNY - Net Profit: - 2022: 71 million CNY - 2023: 298 million CNY - 2024E: 307 million CNY - 2025E: 357 million CNY - 2026E: 435 million CNY - EPS: - 2022: 0.21 CNY - 2023: 0.86 CNY - 2024E: 0.88 CNY - 2025E: 1.03 CNY - 2026E: 1.25 CNY [2][3][4]. Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from a reversal in domestic policy and an improving consumer environment, alongside the strengthening of its online and offline channels [3]. - The TeenieWeenie brand is gaining traction, and the VGRASS brand reform is showing positive results, while the Yuanxian brand is expected to maintain high growth due to its cultural influence [3]. - The company plans to issue shares to its controlling shareholder, indicating confidence in future growth [3].