兴业银行：利润增速回正，拨备不断夯实

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 19.80 CNY and a fair value of 29.37 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% for 2024, although this is a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.1% year-on-year, showing a recovery of 3.1 percentage points compared to the previous quarters [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from good growth in interest-earning assets, effective control of net interest margin decline, narrowing declines in fee income, stable investment income growth, and reasonable control of expenses [8]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.07%, unchanged from the previous year, and a provision coverage ratio of 237.78%, which has increased by 4.24 percentage points from the previous quarter [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total assets and loans increased by 3.5% and 5.1% year-on-year, respectively. The company is expected to allocate a significant amount to investment-type assets in Q4 2024, with an estimated total asset increase of approximately 203.3 billion CNY [8]. - The company’s total liabilities and deposits grew by 2.9% and 7.7% year-on-year, respectively, with deposits contributing significantly to the increase [8]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit growth is projected to be 1.28% and 1.73% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 3.56 CNY and 3.62 CNY [8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5.56X and 5.46X for 2025 and 2026, respectively, and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.50X and 0.47X for the same years [8]. Asset Quality - The company’s non-performing loan balance is projected to increase to 61.4 billion CNY by 2026, with a stable non-performing loan ratio expected to remain around 1.07% [8]. - The provision for loan losses is expected to increase, enhancing the company's risk mitigation capabilities [8].