Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Xtep International (1368 HK) with a target price of HK5.51 [1][2] Core Views - Xtep International is expected to achieve high single-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by its focus on the running segment [4] - The company's 2024 revenue and net profit are forecasted to grow by 1.5% and 21.3% respectively, with a 7.3% revenue growth on a like-for-like basis [5][8] - For 2025, revenue and net profit are projected to increase by 2.5% and 11.5% respectively, with a 9.2% revenue growth on a like-for-like basis [6][8] Financial Performance - Xtep brand revenue is expected to grow by 4.1% in 2024, driven by high single-digit growth in retail sales and strong performance in the children's segment [5] - Saucony is projected to achieve ~50% growth in Q4 2024 and over 60% growth for the full year 2024, contributing to a 55% increase in the professional sports division revenue [5] - The company plans to upgrade over 30% of its old stores to the ninth-generation format in 2025, aiming to drive growth through improved store efficiency [6] - Saucony's new stores are achieving monthly sales of RMB 500k, significantly higher than the average of RMB 300k+, with plans for further expansion in 2025 [6] Valuation and Forecasts - The report maintains a 12x 2025 P/E valuation for Xtep International, with a target price of HK$6.95 [7] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to grow by 1.5%, 2.5%, and 8.8% respectively, reaching RMB 14.56bn, RMB 14.92bn, and RMB 16.24bn [7][8] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to grow by 21.3%, 11.5%, and 12.7% respectively, reaching RMB 1.25bn, RMB 1.39bn, and RMB 1.57bn [7][8] Financial Ratios - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 44.2% in 2024, 44.1% in 2025, and 44.6% in 2026 [11] - Net profit margin is projected to improve from 8.6% in 2024 to 9.3% in 2025 and 9.7% in 2026 [11] - The company's ROE is forecasted to increase from 13.0% in 2024 to 13.3% in 2025 and 13.8% in 2026 [11]
特步国际：继续深耕跑步，预计25年同口径营收高单位数增长