DTCIC(601001) 广发证券·2025-01-16 11:58Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Jinkong Coal (601001 SH) with a target price of 14 90 yuan and a current price of 12 79 yuan [3] Core Viewpoints - Jinkong Coal has initiated the acquisition of a coal exploration right with a designed capacity of 10 million tons per year marking a significant step in the integration of group assets [1][8] - The company has sufficient cash on hand to complete the acquisition with net cash of 12 5 billion yuan after deducting interest-bearing liabilities of 3 48 billion yuan [8] - Upon completion and operation of the Panjiayao Mine the company's controlled coal production capacity is expected to increase by 29% [8] - The company is a small but high-quality coal platform under the Jinneng Holding Group with strong profitability and potential for capacity growth benefiting from long-term group asset integration [8] - The company has no large ongoing projects resulting in low capital expenditure pressure and a gradually increasing dividend payout ratio (14 4% in 2021 34 6% in 2022 and 40 0% in 2023) [8] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to decline slightly from 15 34 billion yuan in 2023 to 14 53 billion yuan in 2025 with a growth rate of -2 9% in 2025 [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 3 30 billion yuan in 2023 to 2 77 billion yuan in 2025 with a growth rate of -3 0% in 2025 [7] - EPS is forecasted to be 1 71 yuan in 2024 1 66 yuan in 2025 and 1 67 yuan in 2026 [7] - The P/E ratio is expected to rise from 6 25 in 2023 to 7 73 in 2025 [7] - ROE is projected to decline from 19 5% in 2023 to 13 7% in 2025 [7] Asset and Liability Overview - The company's total assets are expected to increase from 37 68 billion yuan in 2023 to 45 28 billion yuan in 2026 [10] - Net cash from operating activities is projected to be 4 67 billion yuan in 2024 and 4 87 billion yuan in 2026 [10] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 35 3% in 2023 to 28 6% in 2026 indicating improved financial health [12] Valuation and Dividend Yield - Based on a 9x P/E ratio for 2025 the company's fair value is estimated at 14 90 yuan per share [8] - Assuming a 40% dividend payout ratio for 2024 the current market value corresponds to a dividend yield of 5 3% [8]