卓越新能：四季度业绩恢复增长，看好未来可持续航空燃料（SAF）长期发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7][22] Core Views - The company's Q4 2024 performance shows a significant recovery, with a projected 90.81% YoY increase in net profit attributable to the parent company, reaching approximately 150 million RMB [2][11] - The company has effectively mitigated the impact of EU anti-dumping sanctions by adjusting its sales model and maintaining high operating rates [3][11] - The EU's mandate for a 2% SAF blend in aviation fuel by 2025 presents a long-term growth opportunity, with global SAF consumption expected to reach 2 million tons [4][18] - The cancellation of UCO export tax rebates in China is expected to reduce raw material costs for domestic biodiesel companies, benefiting the company's procurement [3][17] Financial Performance - The company's 2024 revenue is projected to be 3,497 million RMB, a 24.4% increase from 2023, with net profit expected to reach 150 million RMB, a 90.6% YoY increase [5][22] - The company's EPS for 2024 is forecasted at 1.25 RMB, with a PE ratio of 26.14x [5][22] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 5.3% in 2024 to 12.3% by 2026 [5] Industry and Market Dynamics - The EU's temporary anti-dumping duty of 25.4% on the company's biodiesel products has impacted its 2024 gross margin, but the company has adjusted by expanding sales in non-EU European markets and increasing exports to Singapore [11][19] - The company is actively building a 100,000-ton/year second-generation biodiesel production line, which is expected to produce SAF and drive future growth [4][18] - The company is expanding its global presence with production lines in Singapore and Saudi Arabia, with the Singapore line expected to start production in H1 2025, adding 100,000 tons/year of capacity [17] Strategic Initiatives - The company is diversifying its product portfolio by developing bio-based materials, including industrial glycerin, bio-ester plasticizers, and environmentally friendly alkyd resins, and is advancing the construction of a 100,000-ton synthetic resin production facility [19] - The company's international expansion, particularly in Singapore, is expected to help mitigate EU tariff risks and enhance profitability [17]