TSMC(US:TSM) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-01-17 01:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $26.884 billion for Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, with a gross margin of 59.0%, up by 6.0 percentage points [1]. - The company expects Q1 2025 revenue to be between $25 billion and $25.8 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.5% but a year-on-year growth of 34.6% [1]. - The company anticipates a mid-20s revenue growth rate for the full year of 2025, with a projected CAGR of 20% over the next five years [1]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to grow at approximately 10% in 2025 [1]. Performance Analysis - The revenue contribution from advanced processes continues to rise, with 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm processes accounting for 26%, 34%, and 14% of wafer manufacturing revenue in Q4 2024, respectively [1]. - The company expects to commence mass production of the N2 process in the second half of 2025, with N2P and A16 processes expected to follow in the second half of 2026 [1]. - The company's HPC revenue is experiencing high growth, with AI-related revenue expected to double in 2025, achieving a CAGR of around 45% over the next five years [2]. - The advanced packaging segment is projected to grow from 8% in 2024 to 10% in 2025 [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $48.776 billion, $59.662 billion, and $65.470 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 18, and 16 [3]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are $70.626 billion in 2024, $89.748 billion in 2025, and $115.127 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 27.1% and 28.3% for 2024 and 2025, respectively [6].