PJRC(600395) 民生证券·2025-01-17 02:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 90 million to 108 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 85.26% to 87.71%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between -41 million to -25 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 104.05% to 106.64% [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company is expected to report a significant improvement in net profit, estimated at approximately 63.81 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The coal production for Q4 2024 is projected to be 2.49 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.11%, while the coal sales volume is expected to be 1.92 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.32% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a total revenue of 9.008 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 4.2% from 2023. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 94 million yuan, a decline of 87.1% compared to the previous year [5]. - The average selling price of coal is projected to be 807.8 yuan per ton for 2024, an increase of 3.28% year-on-year, while the cost per ton is expected to be 627.08 yuan, an increase of 11.26% [2]. Power Generation Business - The company achieved a power generation of 6.515 billion kWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4019.76%. The on-grid power volume for Q4 2024 is expected to be 2.409 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1547.54% [3]. - The company has been expanding its power generation capacity, with significant contributions expected from the newly commissioned power generation projects [3]. Investment Outlook - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 94 million, 190 million, and 215 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.04, 0.09, and 0.10 yuan. The PE ratios for these years are expected to be 112, 56, and 49 times respectively [4][5]. - The report highlights the gradual formation of a coal-electricity integrated profit model, enhancing the company's risk resistance capabilities [4].