Yanjing Brewery(000729) 广发证券·2025-01-17 02:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 11.20 CNY and a reasonable value of 14.41 CNY [2][3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's ongoing reforms are yielding results, leading to significant growth in annual performance. The expected net profit for 2024 is projected to be between 1.0 to 1.1 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.1% to 70.6% [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance trajectory, with revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 148.7 billion CNY, 156.6 billion CNY, and 164.0 billion CNY respectively, reflecting growth rates of 4.6%, 5.3%, and 4.7% [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction, which has contributed to improved profitability metrics, including a projected net profit margin increase [7][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) is forecasted to grow from 14,213 in 2023 to 15,657 in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.6% [5][8]. - EBITDA is expected to rise from 1,509 million CNY in 2023 to 2,729 million CNY in 2025, indicating a strong operational performance [5][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase significantly from 645 million CNY in 2023 to 1,450 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 37.9% [5][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.23 CNY in 2023 to 0.51 CNY in 2025 [5][8]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 37.69 in 2023 to 21.77 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5][8]. - The report assigns a target P/E of 28 for 2025, leading to a reasonable value estimate of 14.41 CNY per share [7][8].