海信视像：换新有望驱动盈利积极改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hisense Visual (600060 CH) with a target price of RMB 27.30 [1][8] Core Views - Hisense Visual is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy, driving domestic sales recovery and market share growth in 24Q4 [1] - The company's MiniLED products have shown strong performance, with online/offline retail sales of MiniLED TVs accounting for 65.88%/53.87% of total sales in 24Q4, up 47.94pct/35.97pct YoY [2] - Overseas demand remains robust, with 24Q3 overseas TV revenue reaching RMB 8.181 billion, up 16.38% YoY, and further growth expected in 24Q4 [3] - The company's product mix upgrade is expected to improve gross margins in 24Q4, despite a 1.68pct YoY decline in gross margin to 15.31% in 2024Q1-Q3 [4] - The EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are maintained at RMB 1.59, 1.82, and 2.16, respectively, with a target PE of 15x for 2025 [5] Domestic Market Performance - 24Q4 domestic TV sales showed strong recovery, with online/offline retail sales increasing by 34.25%/68.11% YoY [2] - Hisense's domestic market share rebounded, with online/offline retail sales growing by 43.37%/87.87% YoY, and market share increasing by 3.3pct/1.3pct [2] - The average retail price of Hisense TVs increased by 18.14%/18.15% online/offline, driven by the premiumization of MiniLED products [2] Overseas Market Performance - 24Q3 overseas TV revenue reached RMB 8.181 billion, up 16.38% YoY, with strong growth in the US and Europe markets (24.6%/29.3% YoY growth in shipment value) [3] - The company is expected to maintain growth in 24Q4, with further market share expansion potential in overseas markets [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 53.616 billion in 2023 to RMB 64.652 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.56%-8.05% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from RMB 2.096 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.813 billion in 2026 [7] - ROE is projected to improve from 10.11% in 2023 to 11.00% in 2026 [7] - The PE ratio is expected to decline from 13.60x in 2023 to 10.13x in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [7]