Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings with a target price of HKD 5.87 [1][7] Core Views - Tianli International Holdings benefits from clear policy boundaries in private education, stable industry demand, and a competitive landscape [1] - The company has a strong reputation for teaching, highly standardized operational management, and excellent capabilities for regional expansion [1] - It combines growth potential with stable dividend payouts, making it an attractive investment [1] Business Strategy "One Trunk" Business - The company is optimizing its student enrollment structure, aiming to increase the proportion of primary and middle school students to 65% and high school students to 35% by the 2025 academic year [2] - This adjustment is expected to accelerate the full enrollment of self-operated schools and enhance profitability in the core education sector [2] "Multiple Branches" Business - Subsidiary "Qiming Daren" focuses on AI education, with significant results in AI-based college entrance exam preparation, showing strong potential for nationwide expansion [3] - The study tour business has achieved rapid revenue growth through innovative course integration, positioning itself as a leader in the niche market [3] - The competition and foundation strengthening business has gathered top-tier teaching resources, achieving notable results and enhancing brand influence through external collaborations [3] - The托管 business is expanding rapidly, with plans to add 30-50 new school sections by the fall of 2025, further diversifying profit sources [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of RMB 771 million, RMB 995 million, and RMB 1.132 billion for FY25/26/27, respectively [5] - Using a DCF valuation method with a WACC of 10.76% and a perpetual growth rate of 1%, the target price is set at HKD 5.87 [5] - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 2.303 billion in 2023 to RMB 5.466 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 18.67% from 2025 to 2027 [6] - EPS is projected to increase from RMB 0.16 in 2023 to RMB 0.52 in 2027 [6] Shareholder Returns and Capital Planning - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of 30% since its IPO and plans to continue this trend in FY25 [4] - Share buybacks have been actively conducted, reflecting management's confidence in the company's long-term value [4] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio is expected to decline from 21.95x in 2023 to 6.72x in 2027, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [6] - The PB ratio is projected to decrease from 3.58x in 2023 to 1.63x in 2027 [6] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to drop from 20.25x in 2023 to 6.83x in 2027 [6]
天立国际控股：年度股东大会点评：顺势而为，守正创新