AGSW(600199) 华鑫证券·2025-01-17 05:23Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [1][4] Core Views - The company's performance fell short of expectations, with significant pressure on profits [2] - 2024 net profit attributable to parent company is expected to be -291 to -201 million yuan, compared to -22 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - 2024Q4 net profit attributable to parent company is expected to be -191 to -101 million yuan, compared to 13 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - Revenue performance was weak, with increased expense allocation [3] - The company raised prices for its chassis series products in March, leading to a decline in terminal acceptance of products such as Rouhe, resulting in weak product sales [3] - The company increased expense allocation through activities such as the China Power IP, Kaijiao Festival, concerts, and online outdoor investments in key markets [3] - After CR's entry, the company has undergone positive reforms in management, channels, and product systems [4] - Short-term friction in operations is expected, but the long-term development direction is positive [4] - Adjusted EPS for 2024-2026 are -0.04, 0.03, and 0.14 yuan, respectively [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue and profit forecasts [10] - 2024E revenue: 868 million yuan, a decrease of 41.0% year-on-year [10] - 2025E revenue: 875 million yuan, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year [10] - 2026E revenue: 1,007 million yuan, an increase of 15.1% year-on-year [10] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company: -262 million yuan [10] - 2025E net profit attributable to parent company: 21 million yuan [10] - 2026E net profit attributable to parent company: 94 million yuan [10] - Key financial indicators [11] - 2024E gross margin: 26.8% [11] - 2025E gross margin: 37.9% [11] - 2026E gross margin: 41.3% [11] - 2024E ROE: -11.4% [11] - 2025E ROE: 0.9% [11] - 2026E ROE: 3.9% [11] Market Performance - Current stock price: 12.01 yuan [6] - Total market capitalization: 7.9 billion yuan [6] - 52-week price range: 10.09-17.9 yuan [6] - Average daily trading volume: 244.2 million yuan [8]