卓越新能：24年业绩同比预增超90%，海外渠道布局成效已现

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" based on its strong performance and future growth potential [5][7] Core Viewpoints - The company's 2024 annual performance is expected to increase by over 90% year-on-year, with a projected net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 1.5 billion yuan, up 90.81% from the previous year [1] - The company has successfully navigated international trade challenges, particularly the EU's anti-dumping measures, by expanding overseas channels and optimizing costs [2][3] - The company is investing in new production lines, including a 100,000-ton HVO/SAF production line, which is expected to benefit from the global shift towards sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [4] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 3.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.5 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to increase from 1.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.77 billion yuan in 2026 [5][6] - The company's EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.25 yuan in 2024 to 5.64 yuan in 2026, reflecting strong growth potential [5][6] - The company's EBITDA is expected to grow significantly, from 244.98 million yuan in 2024 to 762.46 million yuan in 2026 [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company has established stable operations in the Netherlands and Singapore, with plans to expand production lines in Saudi Arabia and other overseas markets [2] - The company is focusing on cost reduction, process optimization, and expanding non-EU markets to mitigate the impact of international trade policies [2] - The company is actively promoting the application of biodiesel in domestic bio-ship fuel markets and exploring new markets in the bio-based chemical sector [2] Industry Outlook - The global demand for SAF is expected to exceed 15 million tons by 2030, driven by the aviation industry's decarbonization strategy [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the shift in the biodiesel supply chain, as raw materials are increasingly directed towards SAF production [4] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 26.78 in 2024 to 5.92 in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [6] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 11.47 in 2024 to 4.12 in 2026, reflecting improved operational efficiency and profitability [6]