PJRC(600395) 开源证券·2025-01-17 07:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Panjiang Co Ltd (600395 SH) [1][4] Core Views - Q4 performance improved QoQ due to increased coal volume and rising grid-connected electricity [1][4] - Coal production and sales declined YoY in 2024 but showed QoQ growth in Q4 [5] - Power generation business expanded significantly with new projects coming online [5] - Coal-electricity-new energy integration strategy progressing steadily [4][6] Business Performance Coal Business - 2024 coal production/sales: 941/784 million tons, down 16 5%/32% YoY [5] - Q4 coal production/sales: 249/192 million tons, up 2%/3 9% QoQ [5] - 2024 average coal price: 808 yuan/ton, up 3 3% YoY [5] - Q4 coal price: 742 yuan/ton, down 9% QoQ [5] - 2024 coal cost: 627 yuan/ton, up 11 3% YoY [5] - Q4 coal cost: 575 yuan/ton, down 10 7% QoQ [5] Power Business - 2024 power generation/grid-connected electricity: 651472/608202 MWh, up 4020%/4060% YoY [5] - Q4 power generation/grid-connected electricity: 261246/240857 MWh, up 8 1%/6 3% QoQ [5] - 2024 average grid price: 0 367 yuan/kWh, down 2% YoY [5] Future Development Coal Capacity Expansion - Mayi East No 1, No 2 and Mayi West No 2 mines progressing through approval process [6] - Mayi West No 1 (Second Mining Area) 1 2 million ton/year project targeting operation in H1 2026 [6] - Yangshan open-pit mine 1 million ton/year project with 24-month construction period [6] Power Projects - Panjiang Puding 2×660MW coal-fired power project achieved first grid connection in Dec 2024 [6] - 3 77GW new energy projects under construction, with 1 88GW already connected to grid [6] Financial Forecast - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: 97/310/421 million yuan [4] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 0 05/0 14/0 20 yuan [4] - 2024-2026 PE ratio: 108 9/34 1/25 1x [4] Shareholder Activity - Controlling shareholder announced share buyback plan of 60-120 million yuan within 12 months [6]