Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 7.03, implying a 26.7% upside from the current price of HKD 5.5 [4][7] Core Views - The company's Q4 2024 performance was strong, with Saucony growing 50% YoY [2][7] - Xtep's main brand retail sales grew high single-digit YoY in 2024, while Saucony exceeded expectations with over 60% growth [7] - Full-year 2024 profit is expected to achieve 20% growth target [7] - The company is optimistic about 2025 performance, expecting double-digit growth [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 14,712 million in 2024E to RMB 16,676 million in 2026E, representing a 9.4% CAGR [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 1,242 million in 2024E to RMB 1,576 million in 2026E, a 14.1% CAGR [3] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 40.9% in 2022 to 43.8% in 2026 [8] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 11.4% in 2022 to 14.9% in 2026 [8] Business Development - Xtep main brand: - Continuing to open larger stores and close smaller ones to improve store efficiency [7] - Over 60% of stores are 9th generation stores [7] - Expanding internationally, focusing on Southeast Asia, Middle East, Russia, and cross-border e-commerce [7] - Saucony: - Estimated to exceed RMB 1 billion in scale in 2024 [7] - Store efficiency estimated at RMB 300,000-500,000+ [7] - Plans to open flagship stores in tier 1 cities and expand to tier 2-3 cities [7] - Long-term operating margin target of 20%+ [7] Valuation - Current PE ratio: 10.5x (2024E), 9.5x (2025E), 8.4x (2026E) [3] - Target price of HKD 7.03 represents 12x 2025E EPS [7] - Dividend yield expected to increase from 4.8% in 2024E to 6.0% in 2026E [3]
特步国际：2024年第四季度表现良好，索康尼更增长50%