聚灿光电：全年业绩超预期，募投项目顺利投产

Investment Rating - Buy-A (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Full-year performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand recovery in commercial performances, cultural tourism, and other sectors, leading to a significant increase in both net profit and non-GAAP net profit [4] - The company's high-end products, such as high-efficiency lighting, automotive lighting, and backlighting, experienced robust production and sales, with high capacity utilization and production rates [4] - The successful commissioning of the fundraising project, which focuses on red and yellow LED chips, has significantly enhanced the company's competitiveness and expanded its product range into the display market [4] - The company has transitioned from high-quality lighting and backlight products to advanced display products, achieving full coverage in lighting, backlighting, and display applications [5] - The red and yellow LED chips, which are technically challenging, are expected to drive higher sales prices and contribute to the company's overall performance growth [5] Market Data and Financial Performance - Closing price on January 16, 2025: 13.91 yuan [3] - Market capitalization: 9.406 billion yuan [3] - Estimated net profit for 2024: 195-215 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.95%-77.46% [3] - The fundraising project, with an annual production capacity of 2.4 million red and yellow LED chips, is expected to generate over 600 million yuan in annual revenue and over 100 million yuan in annual profit [3] - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.31, 0.39, and 0.50 yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 42.9, 34.0, and 26.1 [6] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 2.821 billion, 3.307 billion, and 4.026 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.7%, 17.2%, and 21.7% [9] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 207 million, 261 million, and 340 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 70.6%, 26.2%, and 30.3% [9] - Gross margin is expected to increase from 14.1% in 2024 to 15.4% in 2026 [9] - ROE is projected to rise from 6.8% in 2024 to 10.0% in 2026 [9] Strategic Development - The company has successfully transitioned into a full-color LED chip supplier, covering lighting, backlighting, and display applications, which is expected to drive sustained growth in performance [5] - The red and yellow LED chips will complement the existing blue and green LED chips, enhancing the company's competitive advantage in the rapidly growing Mini/MicroLED display market [4] - The company's strategic shift towards advanced display products is expected to further consolidate its market position and expand its market share [5]