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通信行业周跟踪:北美资本开支增长并未见顶,Scaleup是光通信重要增量
Shanxi Securities· 2026-02-13 10:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected growth exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1]. Core Insights - North American major CSPs have released their financial reports, indicating that AI has transitioned from a cost center to a revenue engine, leading to an urgent and genuine increase in capital expenditures for 2026, which are expected to exceed forecasts [2][17]. - The cloud business is experiencing significant growth through AI capabilities, with AWS cloud sales increasing by 20% year-on-year to reach $128.7 billion, and Google Cloud projected to exceed $70 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2025, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure and solutions [3][17]. - The total capital expenditure planned by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta for 2026 is projected to reach $660 billion, a 60% increase from 2025 and more than double that of 2024, with Amazon's expected expenditure of $200 billion exceeding market expectations by $50 billion [5][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The AI investment cycle is distinct from previous cloud computing infrastructure phases, with the current capital expenditure cycle not showing signs of peaking, as evidenced by the rapid growth of AI tokens and the introduction of various automated programming workflows [6][20]. - The competition between CPO and optical module technology routes has caused market fluctuations, with concerns about the potential market space being consumed by CPO advancements [10][22]. Market Performance - The overall market saw a decline during the week of February 2-6, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.27% and the Shenwan Communication Index falling by 6.95%. However, the optical cable and submarine cable sector experienced a notable increase of 19.05% [11][23]. - Individual stock performance showed significant gains for companies like Longfly Fiber and Tongyu Communication, while companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Lian Te Technology faced substantial declines [11][37]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include those involved in Scaleup/NPO such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Newyi Sheng, as well as those in passive optical components like Zhishang Technology and Changxin Bochuang [11][23].
光通信重要增量:北美资本开支增长并未见顶,Scaleup是光通信重要增量
Shanxi Securities· 2026-02-13 07:55
通信 周跟踪(20260202-20260208) 领先大市-A(维持) ——北美资本开支增长并未见顶,Scaleup 是光通信重要增量 2026 年 2 月 13 日 行业研究/行业周报 通信行业近一年市场表现 行业动向: 1)北美主要 CSP 陆续发布财报,AI 飞轮高速运转,2026 资本开支指引超 预期。近期,北美主要 CSP 完成了 2025 年度财报的公布,普遍向外界传达的信 号是 AI 已从成本中心转为收入引擎,继续扩大投资急迫且真实。 资料来源:常闻 相关报告: 【山证通信】——moltbot 爆火背后 1.1 云业务通过 AI 算力与工具实现高增。例如,AWS 云销售额同比增长 20% 达到 1287 亿美元,其 Bedrock 上托管的 20+个模型得到客户来自项目编程、推理 和代理工作流程的全面需求。谷歌云 2025 年末年化营收突破 700 亿美元成为增 长最快的核心业务,主要得益于企业 AI 基础设施、AI 解决方案及核心云服务的 强劲客户需求。微软 Azure 的年收入已超过 750 亿美元,同比增长 34%,主要来 自 OpenAI 等大客户的长期订单、Azure AI Foun ...
华丰科技:国产超节点项目储备丰富,高速线模组加速放量-20260213
Shanxi Securities· 2026-02-13 07:25
其他电子零组件Ⅲ 华丰科技(688629.SH) 买入-B(维持) 国产超节点项目储备丰富,高速线模组加速放量 2026 年 2 月 13 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 投资要点: 公司发布 2025年度业绩预告。公司预计 2025年实现归母净利润 3.38-3.88 亿元,同比增加 3.56-4.06 亿元。实现扣非归母净利润 3.02-3.52 亿元,同比增 长 3.80-4.30 亿元。按照业绩预告中值,公司 25Q4 或实现归母净利润 1.4 亿 元,同环比分别+351.6%、+94.4%。公司表示,数据中心建设热潮拉动的交 换机、AI 服务器及核心路由器关键设备需求传导至上游是带动收入快速增长 原因。 收盘价(元/股): 105.76 总股本(亿股): 4.61 流通股本(亿股): 1.82 流通市值(亿元): 192.25 基础数据:2025 年 9 月 30 日 每股净资产(元/股): 3.66 每股资本公积(元/股): 1.73 每股未分配利润(元/股): 0.84 资料来源:常闻 分析师: 国产超节点服务器层出不穷,华为昇腾系列互联带宽提升路径清晰。英 伟达 GB200 NVL ...
长安汽车:销量增长目标明确,大额回购彰显长期发展信心-20260213
Shanxi Securities· 2026-02-13 07:25
乘用车Ⅲ 长安汽车(000625.SZ) 增持-A(首次) 2026 年 2 月 13 日 单击或点击此处输入文字。 公司研究/公司快报 | 市场数据:2026 年 2 月 | 11 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/股): | | 11.18 | | 年内最高/最低(元/ | | 13.84/11.00 | | 股): | | | | 流通 A 股/总股本(亿 | | 82.67/99.13 | | 股): | | | | 流通 股市值(亿元): A | | 924.27 | | 总市值(亿元): | | 1,108.26 | 基础数据:2025 年 9 月 30 日 | 基本每股收益(元/股): | 0.31 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元/股): | 0.31 | | 每股净资产(元/股): | 7.95 | | 净资产收益率(%): | 2.72 | | 资料来源:常闻 | | 分析师: 刘斌 执业登记编码:S0760524030001 邮箱:liubin3@sxzq.com 贾国琛 执业登记编码:S0760525120001 邮箱:jiaguo ...
华丰科技(688629):国产超节点项目储备丰富,高速线模组加速放量
Shanxi Securities· 2026-02-13 06:17
其他电子零组件Ⅲ 华丰科技(688629.SH) 买入-B(维持) 国产超节点项目储备丰富,高速线模组加速放量 2026 年 2 月 13 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 投资要点: 公司发布 2025年度业绩预告。公司预计 2025年实现归母净利润 3.38-3.88 亿元,同比增加 3.56-4.06 亿元。实现扣非归母净利润 3.02-3.52 亿元,同比增 长 3.80-4.30 亿元。按照业绩预告中值,公司 25Q4 或实现归母净利润 1.4 亿 元,同环比分别+351.6%、+94.4%。公司表示,数据中心建设热潮拉动的交 换机、AI 服务器及核心路由器关键设备需求传导至上游是带动收入快速增长 原因。 收盘价(元/股): 105.76 总股本(亿股): 4.61 流通股本(亿股): 1.82 流通市值(亿元): 192.25 基础数据:2025 年 9 月 30 日 每股净资产(元/股): 3.66 每股资本公积(元/股): 1.73 每股未分配利润(元/股): 0.84 资料来源:常闻 分析师: 国产超节点服务器层出不穷,华为昇腾系列互联带宽提升路径清晰。英 伟达 GB200 NVL ...
长安汽车(000625):销量增长目标明确,大额回购彰显长期发展信心
Shanxi Securities· 2026-02-13 06:05
| 基本每股收益(元/股): | 0.31 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元/股): | 0.31 | | 每股净资产(元/股): | 7.95 | | 净资产收益率(%): | 2.72 | | 资料来源:常闻 | | 分析师: 刘斌 执业登记编码:S0760524030001 邮箱:liubin3@sxzq.com 贾国琛 执业登记编码:S0760525120001 邮箱:jiaguochen@sxzq.com 销量增长目标明确,大额回购彰显长期发展信心 乘用车Ⅲ 长安汽车(000625.SZ) 增持-A(首次) 2026 年 2 月 13 日 单击或点击此处输入文字。 公司研究/公司快报 | 市场数据:2026 年 2 月 | 11 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/股): | | 11.18 | | 年内最高/最低(元/ | | 13.84/11.00 | | 股): | | | | 流通 A 股/总股本(亿 | | 82.67/99.13 | | 股): | | | | 流通 股市值(亿元): A | | 924.27 | | 总市值(亿元): ...
山西证券研究早观点-20260213
Shanxi Securities· 2026-02-13 01:30
Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,134.02, a slight increase of 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.86% to 14,283.00 [4]. Industry Commentary: Automotive - In January 2026, the average price of aluminum (A00) was 24,085.50 RMB/ton, up 20.24% year-on-year and 9.77% month-on-month. The average price of magnesium ingots (1) was 18,127.50 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.50% and a month-on-month increase of 5.24%. The magnesium market supply was relatively balanced, leading to stable prices [6]. - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio fell to 0.75, marking a historical low, primarily due to a significant increase in aluminum prices driven by demand from emerging industries such as photovoltaics and energy storage. This trend highlights the cost advantages of magnesium alloys, which are expected to see increased application [6]. - In 2025, China's total magnesium product exports reached 447,600 tons, a decrease of 2.65% year-on-year, with export value dropping by 17.15% to approximately 1.069 billion USD. However, magnesium alloy exports grew by 4.51% year-on-year, indicating a structural shift towards high-value-added products [6]. Company Commentary: Juguang Technology (688167.SH) - Juguang Technology projected a net loss of 42 to 32 million RMB for 2025, a reduction in loss by 76.0% to 81.7% year-on-year. The company expects a net loss of 78 to 68 million RMB after excluding non-recurring items, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 57.2% to 62.7% [8]. - The company reported a revenue increase of approximately 40% due to higher shipments in optical communication and consumer electronics, with a gross margin improvement driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [10]. - Juguang Technology's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 613 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with significant contributions from laser optical components and optical solutions for automotive applications [10]. Company Commentary: Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Aishuo Co. announced a projected net loss of 130 to 180 million RMB for 2025, primarily due to increased investments in new technologies and the impact of currency appreciation on export profits [12]. - The company has secured a patent authorization from Maxeon for its BC solar cell technology, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in overseas markets [14]. - Aishuo's BC components have demonstrated superior efficiency and performance, with a significant increase in sales volume and a strong order backlog, particularly in high-value markets [17]. Industry Commentary: Photovoltaic Sector - The price of polysilicon remained stable at 54.0 RMB/kg, while silicon wafer prices saw a decline, with 182-183.75mm N-type wafers averaging 1.10 RMB/piece, down 12.0% week-on-week [16]. - The market for battery cells is experiencing high prices with low transaction volumes, indicating a potential stabilization in the short term [16]. - Aishuo's BC components are priced at a premium compared to TOPCon components, reflecting their advanced technology and market demand [19].
炬光科技:微纳光学制造龙头,光通信布局有望迎来收获-20260213
Shanxi Securities· 2026-02-13 00:50
其他电子零组件Ⅲ 炬光科技(688167.SH) 增持-A(维持) 微纳光学制造龙头,光通信布局有望迎来收获 2026 年 2 月 12 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 投资要点: | 市场数据:2026 年 | 2 月 | 12 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/股): | | | 369.65 | | 总股本(亿股): | | | 0.90 | | 流通股本(亿股): | | | 0.90 | | 流通市值(亿元): | | | 332.17 | | 年 基础数据:2025 9 | 月 | 日 30 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产(元/股): | | | 24.46 | | | 每股资本公积(元/股): | | | | 25.53 | | 每股未分配利润(元/股): | | | -0.46 | | 张天 执业登记编码:S0760523120001 邮箱:zhangtian@sxzq.com 公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。公司预计 2025 年度归母净利润-0.42 亿至 -0.32 亿元 ...
镁合金月报(202601):镁 铝价比创历史新低,镁合金多行业应用持续开拓
Shanxi Securities· 2026-02-12 07:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the magnesium alloy sector, indicating a leading performance compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio has reached a historical low, highlighting the economic advantages of magnesium alloys as their applications continue to expand across multiple industries [2]. - In January 2026, the average price of aluminum was 24,085.50 CNY/ton, up 20.24% year-on-year and 9.77% month-on-month, while magnesium ingot averaged 18,127.50 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.50% year-on-year increase and a 5.24% month-on-month increase [2]. - The magnesium market is experiencing a balanced supply, with stable prices supported by steady demand, leading to a positive market outlook [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2025, China's total magnesium product exports reached 447,600 tons, a decrease of 2.65% year-on-year, with export value dropping 17.15% to approximately 1.069 billion USD [3]. - Magnesium ingot exports fell by 5.53% to 251,300 tons, while magnesium alloy exports grew by 4.51% to 99,600 tons, indicating a structural growth in high-value-added segments [3]. Industry Dynamics - The implementation of three key magnesium industry standards on February 1, 2026, marks a new phase in energy conservation and environmental governance within the magnesium smelting industry [6]. - The Shenzhou 20 return capsule utilized a magnesium-lithium alloy operation platform, showcasing advancements in aerospace applications with significant weight reduction [5]. Company Announcements - Baowu Magnesium Industry forecasts a net loss of 10-20 million CNY for 2025, primarily due to declining magnesium prices impacting profitability [7]. - Yian Technology anticipates a net loss of 13-18 million CNY, attributed to increased investments in new alloy sectors and currency fluctuations affecting export profits [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with comprehensive industry chain layouts such as Baowu Magnesium Industry, and those with high magnesium alloy business ratios like Xingyuan Zhuomei, as well as equipment suppliers benefiting from increased capital expenditures in component manufacturing [8].
镁合金月报(202601):镁/铝价比创历史新低,镁合金多行业应用持续开拓-20260212
Shanxi Securities· 2026-02-12 06:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the magnesium alloy sector, indicating a leading performance compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio has reached a historical low, highlighting the economic advantages of magnesium alloys as their applications continue to expand across multiple industries [2]. - In January 2026, magnesium prices increased slightly, while aluminum prices surged, driven by demand from emerging industries such as photovoltaics and energy storage, leading to a favorable market environment for magnesium alloys [2]. - The export volume of magnesium products in 2025 decreased by 2.65% year-on-year, with a significant drop in export value by 17.15%. However, magnesium alloy exports showed a growth of 4.51%, indicating a structural shift towards high-value-added products in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The magnesium market in January 2026 showed a balanced supply, with stable prices supported by steady demand [2]. - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio fell to 0.75, a decrease of 0.14 year-on-year, reflecting the competitive edge of magnesium alloys [2]. Industry Developments - The implementation of three new industry standards for magnesium processing began on February 1, 2026, marking a significant step towards energy conservation and environmental governance in the magnesium smelting industry [6]. - The aerospace sector has seen advancements with the use of magnesium-lithium alloy platforms, which significantly reduce weight and enhance performance [5]. Company Announcements - Baowu Magnesium Industry reported a projected net loss for 2025 due to declining magnesium prices, while Yian Technology also forecasted losses attributed to increased investments in new technologies and currency fluctuations [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with comprehensive industry chain layouts such as Baowu Magnesium Industry, and those with high exposure to magnesium alloy business like Xingyuan Zhuomei, as well as equipment suppliers benefiting from increased capital expenditures in the sector [8].