市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 研究早观点 2025 年 12 月 2 日 星期二 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,914.01 | 0.65 | | 深证成指 | | 13,146.72 | 1.25 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,576.49 | 1.10 | | 中小板指 | | 8,008.75 | 1.40 | | 创业板指 | | 3,092.50 | 1.31 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,336.76 | 0.72 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】煤炭：煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 10 月进口环比收缩 【山证纺服】波司登 26 财年中期业绩点评-品牌羽绒服板块引领营收 稳健增长，库存周转速度显著提升 【公司评论】壶化股份(003002.SZ)：深度报告-山西民爆龙头，西部项 目引领发展新征程 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股 ...

煤炭 煤炭进口数据拆解 领先大市-A(维持) 25 年 10 月进口环比收缩 2025 年 12 月 1 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证煤炭】行业政策点评 2026 年电煤 中长期合同点评：符合预期，港口基准 价维持不变 2025.11.20 月：火电增速逆势向上，煤价上涨超预 期 2025.11.18 数据拆解： 首选股票 评级 进口煤量收缩趋势继续放缓，进口价上涨。进口量方面，1-10 月累计增 速实现-11.0%，累计进口煤量仍然呈现收缩趋势；进口煤当月同比连续 8 个 月保持负增速，但同比负增速持续边际放缓，其中 10 月进口煤同比降 9.75%、 环比降 9.26%。分煤种来看，四大煤种均呈现环比负增，其中动力煤和褐煤 环比减量较大。动力煤环比减量主要是因为蒙古和印尼进口量减少；炼焦煤 环比减量主要由蒙古贡献；褐煤环比减量主要由印度尼西亚贡献；无烟煤环 比减量主要来自俄罗斯。价格方面，10 月当月全煤种进口价格实现 71 美元/ 吨，维持同比回落趋势，10 月当月环比增 3.65 美元/吨。分煤种看，全煤种 进口价格较去年同期均有较大幅度下降， ...

民爆用品 壶化股份（003002.SZ） 买入-B(首次) 山西民爆龙头，西部项目引领发展新征程 2025 年 12 月 1 日 公司研究/深度分析 公司近一年市场表现 投资要点： 一体化大型民爆企业，产能位居行业前列。公司是一家集民用爆破器材 研发、生产、销售、进出口、爆破服务于一体的大型民爆企业。拥有从民爆 上游原材料研发生产，到下游专业爆破服务的完整产业链条，已形成"民爆、 出口、爆破、军工"四大产业版块。拥有数码电子雷管产能 5880 万发、工业 炸药产能共计 11.4 万吨、工业雷管产能 2000 万发、起爆具产能 2300 吨。 市场数据：2025 年 11 月 28 日 经营稳中有增，财务持续稳健。2020-2024 年，公司收入从 5.56 亿元增 至 11.01 亿元，CAGR 为 25.58%；归母净利润由 0.97 亿元增至 1.4 亿元，CAGR 为 13.01%。2024 年在国内经济景气度低迷、民爆行业缩量下行的严峻形势下， 收入、利润均保持在健康合理的空间。2025 上半年，公司出口市场和省外市 场拓展增幅较大，主营产品雷管、炸药、起爆具产销量均显著提升。前三季 度公司实现营业收 ...

来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 市场数据：2025 年 11 月 28 日 收盘价（港元）： 4.960 年内最高/最低（港元）： 5.370/3.460 总股本（亿股）： 116.30/116.30 流通市值（亿港元）： 576.84 总市值（亿港元）： 576.84 分析师： 王冯 纺织服饰 波司登（03998.HK） 买入-A(维持) 品牌羽绒服板块引领营收稳健增长，库存周转速度显著提升 2025 年 12 月 1 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述 11 月 28 日，波司登发布 2025/26 财年上半财年业绩。报告期内，公司实现营收 89.28 亿元，同比增长 1.4%，实现归母净利润 11.89 亿元，同比增长 5.3%。公 司宣派中期股息每股普通股 6.3 港仙。 事件点评 执业登记编码：S0760522030003 邮箱：wangfeng@sxzq.com 孙萌 执业登记编码：S0760523050001 邮箱：sunmeng@sxzq.com 品牌羽绒服业务引领公司收入稳健增长，贴牌加工业务受关税影响有所承 来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 压。FY2025/26H1，公司实现营收 89.28 亿元， ...

市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,888.60 | 0.34 | | 深证成指 | | 12,984.08 | 0.85 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,526.66 | 0.25 | | 中小板指 | | 7,897.84 | 0.95 | | 创业板指 | | 3,052.59 | 0.70 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,327.15 | 1.26 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 2025 年 12 月 1 日 星期一 研究早观点 【今日要点】 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【公司评论】海博思创(688411.SH)：海博思创快报-国内储能稳居龙头， 海外市场正在突破 【行业评论】HR+/HER2-乳腺癌后线药物进展：后线治疗迎来广谱新 选择，TROP2 ADC、HER3 ADC、KAT6 抑制剂表现突出 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和 ...

2025 年 11 月 28 日 公司研究/公司快报 分析师： 肖索 执业登记编码：S0760522030006 邮箱：xiaosuo@sxzq.com 杜羽枢 执业登记编码：S0760523110002 邮箱：duyushu@sxzq.com 储能 海博思创（688411.SH） 买入-A(首次) 国内储能稳居龙头，海外市场正在突破 事件描述 公司上市以来股价表现 | 年 月 市场数据：2025 | 11 | 日 25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | | 299.46 | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | | | 426.01/57.00 | | 流通A股/总股本（亿）： | | | 0.38/1.80 | | 流通 A 股市值（亿）： | | | 113.60 | | 总市值（亿）： | | | 539.30 | | 年 基础数据：2025 | 月 9 | 日 30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益(元)： | | | 3.58 | | 摊薄每股收益(元)： | | | 3.58 | | 每股净资产(元)： ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Nvidia in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching $57 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 22% and a year-over-year increase of 62%, driven by robust demand in data center computing products [4][5] - The launch of Google's AI model, Nano Banana Pro, has generated significant market excitement, indicating a competitive landscape in AI capabilities and the necessity for continuous advancements in computational power [4][5] - The domestic computing power market is expected to see substantial growth, with various catalysts such as potential changes in U.S. GPU export policies and the upcoming IPO of domestic companies like Moore Threads [4][7] Industry Overview - The communication sector has experienced a decline, with the overall market indices showing a downward trend, particularly in the Shenzhen Component Index, which fell by 5.13% [2][5] - The report notes that the domestic computing power chain presents numerous opportunities, both from a capital expenditure perspective and in terms of domestic substitution and technological innovation [4][5] - The introduction of Huawei's AI container technology, Flex: AI, is expected to enhance the utilization of domestic computing clusters by 30%, showcasing advancements in AI infrastructure optimization [7] Company Insights - The report discusses the performance of Kema Technology, which achieved a revenue of 794 million yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 28.86% [8] - Kema Technology is positioned as a leader in advanced ceramic materials, with significant growth expected in its ceramic heater segment due to increased demand from domestic semiconductor manufacturers [8][9] - The company is actively pursuing domestic substitution opportunities, with a focus on high-purity aluminum oxide and high thermal conductivity aluminum nitride products, aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the semiconductor equipment market [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6][9]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in advanced ceramic materials in China, with expected earnings growth driven by the increasing demand for its modular products in the semiconductor supply chain [6][9]. - The company reported a revenue of 794 million yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 28.86%, and a net profit of 245 million yuan, up 8.29% year-over-year [3][4]. - The company has successfully integrated its ceramic heater products into the supply chains of major domestic semiconductor manufacturers, which is expected to accelerate growth in 2026 [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 349 million yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 12.3% [10][12]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 1.11 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.10 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 39.7% [10][12]. - The gross margin is projected to remain strong, with estimates of 54.5% in 2025 and increasing to 59.0% by 2027 [10][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is capitalizing on the domestic substitution trend in the semiconductor industry, with increasing orders from leading semiconductor equipment manufacturers [5][6]. - The company has established a comprehensive production system covering the entire value chain, which enhances supply chain security for its customers amid rising international trade protectionism [5][6]. - The company is focused on the development and mass production of high-purity aluminum oxide and high-thermal conductivity aluminum nitride, which are critical components in semiconductor manufacturing [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [1]. Core Insights - Nvidia's Q3 2025 earnings report exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $57 billion, a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 62% year-over-year increase, driven by strong sales in data center computing and networking products [3][14]. - Google's recent launch of the AI image model Nano Banana Pro has generated significant market excitement, enhancing expectations for the Google chain and indicating a competitive landscape in AI model development [4][15]. - The domestic computing power market is experiencing multiple catalysts, with opportunities arising from potential changes in U.S. GPU export policies and advancements in domestic chip capabilities [5][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" with expectations of significant growth in the domestic computing power market by 2026 [1]. Market Performance - The overall market saw declines during the week of November 17-21, 2025, with the Shenwan Communication Index dropping by 2.51% and the ChiNext Index falling by 6.15% [9][19]. Key Developments - Nvidia's strong financial performance and diverse customer demand counter the "AI bubble" narrative, with plans to deploy substantial AI infrastructure [3][14]. - Google's Nano Banana Pro model showcases advanced capabilities, leading to a surge in social media interest and raising concerns about the competitive landscape in AI [4][15]. - Domestic computing power is expected to benefit from potential U.S. policy changes regarding GPU exports, which could enhance capital expenditures in China [5][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the Google chain, domestic supernodes, and commercial aerospace sectors, highlighting specific firms such as Guangke Technology and Cambrian [8][19].

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,864.18, down 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% to 12,907.83 [2] Industry Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the non-bank financial sector, particularly in brokerage mergers and acquisitions, indicating a renewed focus on investment value within the sector [4][6] - The securities industry has seen a substantial increase in bond underwriting, with a total of 705.18 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds issued in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 57.77% [6] Company Analysis: Longxin Group - Longxin Group recently launched the "Longxin Jiugong Power Trading Intelligent Agent," an AI-driven tool designed for power trading, which aims to simplify market decision-making and enhance trading efficiency [5][9] - The intelligent agent boasts four core capabilities: comprehensive situational awareness, deep strategy analysis, intelligent solution generation, and comprehensive risk control, achieving over 90% accuracy in price forecasting [9] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Longxin Group reported revenues of 2.45 billion yuan, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year, but anticipates a revenue increase in Q4 due to the traditional peak season for power grid-related business [9] - The company has seen significant growth in its new energy services, with over 25 million registered users on its charging platform and a projected total charging volume of 7 billion kWh for the year [9] Solar Industry Commentary - The report tracks price movements in the solar industry, noting that polysilicon prices remained stable at 52.0 yuan/kg, while silicon wafer prices have seen declines of 6.3% and 3.1% for different types [10] - The solar market is experiencing a downturn in demand, with domestic production expected to fall below 44.5 GW in November, and a 23.6% decrease in solar module exports in October [10] - The report recommends companies involved in new technology directions, supply-side initiatives, and energy storage, highlighting Longxin Group as a key player in the power market [10]