Investment Rating - Pinduoduo (PDD) is recommended for attention due to its strong domestic low-price advantage and rapid expansion in overseas business [3] Core Views - Pinduoduo has achieved rapid growth through its "white-label logic + extreme efficiency" strategy, leveraging social media and low-cost user acquisition [1][2] - The domestic e-commerce market is highly competitive, with limited growth potential due to high user penetration rates [2] - Temu, Pinduoduo's overseas platform, has become a key growth driver, leveraging China's supply chain advantages and a "semi-hosted" model to expand rapidly [3] Company Overview - Pinduoduo was founded in 2015, went public on NASDAQ in 2018, and became the largest e-commerce platform in mainland China by user count in 2021 [1] - From 2017 to 2023, Pinduoduo's active buyer CAGR was 37.3%, GMV CAGR was 103.9%, and revenue CAGR was 128% [1] - In 2023, Pinduoduo achieved a Non-GAAP net profit of 67.9 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 27.4% [1] Domestic Business - Domestic e-commerce growth has slowed due to high user penetration (over 80%) and intense competition [2] - Pinduoduo's "Billion Subsidy" program has helped it transition from serving "cost-effective users" to meeting "user cost-effective needs" [2] - The company's organizational efficiency is high, with per capita revenue reaching 14.23 million yuan in 2023, three times that of Alibaba and seven times that of JD.com [2] Overseas Expansion (Temu) - Temu was launched in September 2022 and has expanded to 89 countries/regions as of December 2024 [3] - Temu leverages China's supply chain advantages and a "semi-hosted" model to offer low prices internationally [3] - As of December 2023, Temu had 467 million independent users, ranking second globally in e-commerce [3] - Temu faces challenges such as tariff and regulatory risks, as well as the need to build overseas supply chain and fulfillment capabilities [3] Financial Performance - Pinduoduo's EPS for 2023A was 41.67 yuan/ADS, with projected EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E at 82.08, 93.93, and 113.2 yuan/ADS, respectively [5] - The company's PE ratio for 2023A was 18x, expected to decrease to 9x, 8x, and 6x for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [5] Competitive Landscape - Pinduoduo's domestic growth is challenged by intense competition, with platforms like Alibaba and JD.com also offering subsidies and merchant support [3] - Temu competes with other cross-border e-commerce platforms like AliExpress, SHEIN, and TikTok Shop, each with distinct advantages in logistics, supply chain, and content [71][72] Organizational Efficiency - Pinduoduo's flat and flexible organizational structure supports its rapid growth, with high per capita revenue and efficient operations [2][51] - Temu's team is composed of experienced executives from Pinduoduo's core businesses, ensuring strong execution capabilities [77]
电商研究系列（二）：拼多多深度报告：低价优势深厚，组织效率驱动“超级速度”出海