EASPRING(300073) 东吴证券·2025-01-17 11:15Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q4 performance fell short of expectations due to the bankruptcy of Northvolt, impacting its financial results [1] - The company's 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 450-520 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73-77% [8] - The non-recurring net profit for 2024 is projected to be between 260-320 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84-87% [8] - The Q4 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between -14 to 56 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 87-103% [8] - The Q4 non-recurring net profit is expected to be between -62 to -2 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 101-118% [8] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024 revenue is forecasted to be 7,796 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.46% [1] - 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 486.55 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 74.72% [1] - 2025 revenue is forecasted to be 9,843 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.26% [1] - 2025 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 600.93 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.51% [1] - 2026 revenue is forecasted to be 11,662 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.48% [1] - 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 732.69 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.93% [1] EPS and Valuation - 2024 EPS is forecasted to be 0.96 yuan per share [1] - 2025 EPS is forecasted to be 1.19 yuan per share [1] - 2026 EPS is forecasted to be 1.45 yuan per share [1] - 2024 P/E ratio is 40.06x [1] - 2025 P/E ratio is 32.43x [1] - 2026 P/E ratio is 26.60x [1] Business Segments Ternary Cathode Materials - 2024 full-year ternary cathode material shipments are estimated to be over 40,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of around 30% [8] - Q4 ternary cathode material shipments are estimated to be around 10,000 tons, flat quarter-on-quarter [8] - Q4 ternary cathode material non-recurring loss per ton is estimated to be around 3,000 yuan, with a 30% quarter-on-quarter decrease in non-recurring profit per ton [8] - 2025 H2 overseas orders are expected to be released, with a projected profit level of around 10,000 yuan per ton [8] Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) - 2024 full-year LFP cathode material shipments are estimated to be 50,000-60,000 tons [8] - Q4 LFP cathode material shipments are estimated to be 20,000-30,000 tons [8] - 2025 LFP cathode material shipments are expected to be nearly 100,000 tons [8] - Q4 LFP business is expected to turn profitable, with profitability expected in 2025 [8] Market Data - Closing price: 38.48 yuan [6] - 52-week low/high: 26.86/57.00 yuan [6] - P/B ratio: 1.48x [6] - Market capitalization: 19,490.15 million yuan [6] Financial Ratios - 2024 gross margin: 11.21% [9] - 2025 gross margin: 10.91% [9] - 2026 gross margin: 11.22% [9] - 2024 net margin attributable to the parent company: 6.24% [9] - 2025 net margin attributable to the parent company: 6.11% [9] - 2026 net margin attributable to the parent company: 6.28% [9] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - 2024 operating cash flow: 552 million yuan [9] - 2025 operating cash flow: 634 million yuan [9] - 2026 operating cash flow: 904 million yuan [9] - 2024 capital expenditure: -734 million yuan [9] - 2025 capital expenditure: -1,134 million yuan [9] - 2026 capital expenditure: -1,134 million yuan [9]