GPED(000429) Tianfeng Securities·2025-01-19 01:12Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 15.57 CNY, based on a current price of 13.35 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company focuses on toll road operations, demonstrating robust growth in revenue and profitability, with a high return on equity (ROE) around 15% and a dividend payout ratio of approximately 70%, which are industry-leading figures [1][11][25]. - The traffic volume on the company's toll roads is expected to continue rising, driven by economic growth in Guangdong province, which has a GDP growth rate higher than the national average [2][38]. - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions and increasing its stake in quality road assets, which has led to a significant increase in controlled toll road mileage by 223% from 2014 to 2023 [3][54]. Summary by Sections Focus on Core Business, High ROE, and High Dividends - The company is the only publicly listed toll road operator controlled by the Guangdong Provincial Transportation Group, focusing on toll road operations and showing steady growth [1][12]. - From 2014 to 2023, the company's toll revenue and net profit have increased by 241% and 413%, respectively, indicating strong operational performance [15][20]. Existing Road Traffic Volume Continues to Rise - The traffic volume on major toll roads operated by the company has shown an upward trend, with annual growth rates for specific highways such as Guangfo, Fokai, and Guanghui at 10.6%, 12.5%, and 13.5%, respectively [2][31]. - The company anticipates further increases in traffic volume and toll revenue following the completion of road expansions [2][38]. Acquisition and Increase of Quality Road Assets Accelerates Development - The company employs a "stake increase to control" strategy, which has resulted in a significant increase in controlled toll road mileage and traffic volume [3][54]. - The company is expected to continue acquiring or increasing stakes in quality road assets, supported by favorable policies for industry consolidation [3][66]. Profitability Forecast and Target Price - The company is projected to see continued profit growth, with estimated net profits of 1.57 billion CNY, 1.63 billion CNY, and 1.67 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][4]. - The target price of 15.57 CNY reflects the company's strong fundamentals and growth potential [4][5].