BANK OF CHANGSHA(601577) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-01-19 01:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changsha Bank is "Buy" [6] Core Views - Changsha Bank's net profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 6.9% year-on-year, with a slight recovery in growth rate compared to the previous three quarters [2][3] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to increase by 4.6% year-on-year, showing improvement from the previous quarters [2][3] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of 2024 is 1.15%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the previous quarter, indicating stable improvement in asset quality [5] - The provision coverage ratio remains stable at 314% [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, Changsha Bank's net profit is estimated to reach CNY 7,983 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.97% [7] - Revenue is expected to be CNY 25,936 million, with a growth rate of 4.57% [7] Asset Growth - Total assets of Changsha Bank are projected to grow by 12.4% year-on-year by the end of 2024, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% [4] - The loan balance shows a slight increase of 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, while total assets have grown more significantly [4] Non-Performing Loans - The NPL ratio is expected to remain stable at 1.15% by the end of 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 314% [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - For 2025 and 2026, net profit is forecasted to grow by 4.94% and 5.44% respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of CNY 18.14 and CNY 19.83 [6] - The target price is set at CNY 10.75 per share, indicating a potential upside of 26% based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.65x for 2024 [6]