Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained as "Buy" [7][4]. Core Views - JD Group is showing a robust recovery in its fundamentals, supported by the "old-for-new" initiative, which is expected to enhance user growth and category expansion in the long term [1][3]. - The company's strong cyclical attributes are anticipated to help realize upward adjustments in valuation and fundamentals amid further consumer policy stimuli [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - JD Group's total revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to grow by 9.2% year-on-year to RMB 334.3 billion, an improvement from 5.1% in Q3 2024, driven by the "old-for-new" initiative [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 is projected to increase by 17.5% year-on-year to RMB 9.89 billion, surpassing consensus expectations [2]. - The retail segment's revenue is expected to grow by 9.5% year-on-year to RMB 293.2 billion, primarily supported by the recovery in revenue from electronic products [2]. Financial Adjustments - The non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to RMB 46.4 billion, RMB 51.1 billion, and RMB 55.6 billion, respectively, reflecting a slight increase [4][17]. - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at USD 48.34 per ADS and HKD 188.21 per ordinary share, indicating a favorable valuation [4][19]. Market Trends and Initiatives - The "old-for-new" initiative has shown significant results in 2024, with over 36 million consumers purchasing major home appliances, generating sales of RMB 240 billion [3][11]. - The government plans to expand the scope of the "old-for-new" initiative in 2025, which is expected to further benefit JD Group due to its established supply chain capabilities and diversified online and offline business models [3][11]. Segment Valuation - The valuation for JD's retail business is set at USD 36.34 per ADS, based on a non-GAAP PE of 12.0 times the 2025 forecast, slightly below the average of comparable companies [19][20].
京东集团-SW：4Q24前瞻：基本面修复势头稳健