PDH(600048) Soochow Securities·2025-01-19 13:29Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively adjusting its investment layout, focusing on core cities, and is expected to benefit from special bond storage and optimization of land reserve structure [3] - The company maintains a green status under the "three red lines" policy, indicating a stable financing environment [3] - The company is projected to experience a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, but as a leading state-owned enterprise in the industry, its valuation is expected to gradually recover [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve total revenue of 312.8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [10] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 5.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 58.4% [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is adjusted to 0.42 yuan for 2024, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.67X [3][11] Land Acquisition and Investment Strategy - In 2024, the company acquired a total land area of 3.29 million square meters, a decrease of 69.4% year-on-year, with land costs amounting to 68.3 billion yuan, down 58.2% [3] - The investment intensity is reported at 21.1%, a decline of 17.5 percentage points from 2023 [3] - The company is focusing on acquiring quality land in first-tier and core second-tier cities, with 31.6% and 42.3% of new land reserves located in these cities, respectively [3] Financing and Debt Management - As of September 2024, the company has a cash balance of 127.4 billion yuan, accounting for 9.3% of total assets, with interest-bearing debt remaining stable at 358.7 billion yuan [3] - The company continues to maintain a green status under the "three red lines" policy, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 65.5%, down 2.67 percentage points from the beginning of the year [3] Market Position - Despite a decline in sales scale, the company remains the top seller in the industry, with total sales of 323 billion yuan in 2024, down 23.5% year-on-year [10] - The average selling price increased by 1.6% year-on-year to 17,980 yuan per square meter [10]