Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][8] Core Views - JD Group is expected to report strong revenue and profit performance for Q4 2024, with revenue projected to increase by 9% year-on-year to 333.7 billion yuan, driven by national subsidies boosting retail revenue growth [3][5] - The company is anticipated to benefit significantly from the continuation and expansion of the "trade-in" subsidy policy in 2025, leading to an upward adjustment in revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [4][8] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Q4 2024 revenue is expected to reach 333.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, primarily due to the "trade-in" policy [3][5] - JD Retail revenue growth is projected at 10%, with double-digit growth in electronic categories and high single-digit growth in daily necessities [3][5] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 2024 is forecasted to be 9.446 billion yuan, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 2.8% [3][7] Adjustments to Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 1,145.5 billion yuan, 1,213.2 billion yuan, and 1,293.0 billion yuan, with increases of 0.9% for both 2024 and 2025, and 0.8% for 2026 [4][8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 46 billion yuan, 51.3 billion yuan, and 56.8 billion yuan, with increases of 2.6%, 2.5%, and 2.4% respectively [4][8] Market Position and Share - JD Group's market share is stabilizing and expected to recover, primarily driven by the "trade-in" policy, which is projected to contribute approximately 1.1% to GMV growth in the home appliance category and around 3% from new categories like mobile devices [6][7] - Active merchants are expected to show close to triple-digit growth, while active purchasing users are projected to increase by approximately 15% year-on-year [6][7]
京东集团-SW：2024Q4前瞻：收入利润表现亮眼，以旧换新带动Q4电商份额增长