明阳智能：国内海风龙头，出海订单持续落地

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic offshore wind market, with a market share of 40.9% in offshore wind installations, ranking first in the country [8][21] - The company faced short-term performance pressure, with a revenue decline of 9% year-on-year in 2023, resulting in a significant drop in net profit by 89% [8][15] - The European offshore wind market is expected to see significant growth, with average annual installations projected to reach 8GW+ from 2026 to 2027 [21][24] - The company has secured several key contracts in Europe, indicating a rapid increase in orders since 2024 [24] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Offshore Wind Leadership and Short-term Performance Pressure - The company achieved 10.18GW of new wind installations in 2023, with a total revenue of 27.9 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 372 million yuan, down 89% [8][15] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 202.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, and a net profit of 8.1 billion yuan, down 34.6% [15] 2. European Offshore Wind Installation Potential and Order Growth - The report highlights the potential for explosive growth in the European offshore wind market, with cumulative installations expected to exceed 150GW by 2030 [21][22] - The company has signed key agreements with developers in Germany and Italy for offshore wind projects, indicating a strong order pipeline [24] 3. Increased Expense Ratios and Short-term Cash Flow Pressure - The company's expenses increased by 32.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, leading to a higher expense ratio of 14.9% [25] - Operating cash flow was negative at -46.4 billion yuan, reflecting short-term cash flow challenges [25] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 down to 10.3 billion yuan and 28.5 billion yuan, respectively, while increasing the 2026 forecast to 34.3 billion yuan [30] - The company is expected to benefit from its leading position in the wind turbine market and the recovery of offshore wind shipments, justifying the "Buy" rating [30]