Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods (605080) Xinda Securities·2025-01-20 00:04Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Zhejiang Natural (605080) based on optimistic growth prospects and effective overseas expansion strategies [1]. Core Views - The company has set ambitious revenue and net profit targets for 2025-2026, aiming for at least 1.389 billion and 2 billion CNY in revenue, and 275 million and 374 million CNY in net profit respectively [1]. - The recovery in the inflatable mattress industry, along with the expansion into new major clients, is expected to accelerate growth [1]. - The overseas production bases in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Morocco are entering a harvest phase, with expectations of improved profitability in the coming years [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Targets - The company has established a revenue target of no less than 1.389 billion CNY for 2025 and 2 billion CNY for 2026, with net profit targets of at least 275 million CNY and 374 million CNY respectively [1]. Overseas Expansion - The overseas bases are primarily in Vietnam (focusing on water products), Cambodia (focusing on bags), and Morocco, all of which are expected to enhance the company's global supply chain share amid trade tensions [2]. - The Vietnam base is projected to break even in 2025, while the Cambodia base has already achieved profitability [2]. Product Performance - The inflatable mattress segment is showing signs of recovery, with exports valued at 1.47 billion CNY in 2022, 1.4 billion CNY in 2023, and an expected 1.52 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16% [2]. - The company anticipates a significant acceleration in growth due to market demand recovery and increased penetration of TPU over PVC [2]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.93 billion CNY, 2.76 billion CNY, and 3.83 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.1X, 15.5X, and 11.2X [3].