PDH(600048) 平安证券·2025-01-20 00:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Poly Developments (600048.SH) with a current stock price of 8.66 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company is experiencing gradual release of performance pressure, with sales maintaining industry leadership despite a projected decline in revenue and profit for 2024 [4][9]. - The anticipated total revenue for 2024 is 312.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, with net profit expected to drop by 58.4% to 5.016 billion yuan [4][8]. - The company continues to focus on land acquisition in core cities, with a sales amount of 323 billion yuan in 2024, down 23.5% year-on-year, but still leading the market [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 312.735 billion yuan, down from 346.828 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 9.8% decline [7][8]. - Net profit is expected to fall to 5.016 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 58.4% compared to 2023 [4][8]. - The gross margin is projected to decline to 14.0% in 2024, with a net margin of 1.6% [7][8]. Sales and Market Position - The company remains the top seller in the industry, with a sales price of 17,980 yuan per square meter, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year [8][9]. - Land acquisition in 2024 is reported at 329 million square meters, with an investment of 68.2 billion yuan [8][9]. Future Projections - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is revised down to 0.42 yuan, with projections for 2025 and 2026 at 0.46 yuan and 0.54 yuan respectively [8][9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 20.7 times for 2024, decreasing to 15.9 times by 2026 [8][9].