Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for JD.com, with a target price of US39.00 [3][11]. Core Insights - JD.com is expected to report solid results for 4Q24, with total revenue projected at RMB334.6 billion, reflecting a 9.3% year-over-year growth, which is 3% above Bloomberg consensus. This growth is attributed to the nationwide home appliance trade-in program, JD's strong GMV exposure in the home appliance category, and robust supply chain capabilities [1][8]. - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to grow by 13.2% year-over-year, exceeding consensus estimates by 16%, driven by gross margin expansion and optimized sales and marketing costs [1][8]. - The report emphasizes that JD.com is well-positioned to benefit from the trade-in program in the short term, while long-term growth will depend on sustainable earnings and enhanced shareholder returns [1][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, JD.com is projected to achieve revenue of RMB1,146.4 billion, a 5.7% increase from FY23A, with non-GAAP net profit expected to reach RMB46.1 billion [2][9]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is forecasted at RMB46.1 billion, with an adjusted EPS of RMB29.05 [2][9]. - Revenue growth is expected to continue into FY25E at RMB1,218.0 billion, representing a 6.2% increase, and further to RMB1,278.0 billion in FY26E, with a growth rate of 4.9% [2][9]. Segment Performance - The Electronics and Home Appliance (E&HA) segment is projected to see a 10% year-over-year revenue growth in 4Q24, supported by the trade-in program [7][8]. - JD Retail (JDR) is expected to report segment revenue of RMB294.0 billion in 4Q24, up 9.8% year-over-year, with operating profit anticipated to increase by 28% year-over-year [7][8]. Forecast Revisions - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upward by 1-2%, and non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been increased by 2-8%, primarily due to improved expectations for the E&HA segment and better gross margin forecasts [8][9]. - The gross margin for FY24E is projected at 15.9%, with non-GAAP net margin expected to be 4.0% [9][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 11.1x for FY24E, decreasing to 9.1x by FY26E, reflecting a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [2][9]. - The DCF-based target price of US$53.20 is based on a WACC of 11.8% and a terminal growth rate of 1.5% [11][12].
京东：Expecting solid 4Q24 results driven by home appliance trade-in program