LIHUA(SZ:300761) GF SECURITIES·2025-01-20 02:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 19.20 CNY and a fair value of 27.61 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to show significant improvement, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.45 to 1.58 billion CNY, indicating a turnaround from losses in the previous year. The fourth quarter alone is anticipated to yield a net profit of 290 to 420 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 432% to 462% [7]. - The company has a notable cost advantage in chicken farming, with an estimated average profit of 2.1 to 2.2 CNY per chicken for the year. The total chicken output is expected to reach 516 million, a 13% increase year-on-year, despite a 5.5% decrease in sales price [7]. - The pig farming segment is also showing continuous improvement in cost and scale, with an expected output of approximately 1.3 million pigs in 2024, a 52% increase year-on-year. The average selling price is projected at 17.3 CNY per kilogram, with an estimated profit of 280 to 300 CNY per pig [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 to 2026 is 1.80, 1.84, and 2.77 CNY respectively, supported by the company's competitive advantages and ongoing expansion in farming scale [7]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 14.447 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 15.354 billion CNY in 2023 and further growth to 17.184 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 29.8%, 6.3%, and 11.9% respectively [2]. - The EBITDA for 2022 was 1.719 billion CNY, with expectations of 472 million CNY in 2023 and a rebound to 2.162 billion CNY in 2024 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 891 million CNY in 2022, with a forecasted loss of 437 million CNY in 2023, followed by a significant recovery to 1.492 billion CNY in 2024 [2].