MANGO(300413) Changjiang Securities·2025-01-20 05:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.25 to 1.61 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 64.85% to 54.72%, primarily due to the impact of deferred tax asset write-downs [1][3]. - The company anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 1.54 to 1.90 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -9.17% to +12.06% [1][3]. - Membership revenue is projected to grow by 18% to 5.09 billion yuan, with the effective membership scale of Mango TV reaching 73.31 million by year-end, marking a 10% year-on-year increase [8]. - Advertising revenue is expected to increase by 1.4% to 3.58 billion yuan, while operator revenue is projected to decline by 41% to 1.63 billion yuan [1][8]. - The GMV of Xiaomang e-commerce is expected to grow by 55% to over 16 billion yuan [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 14.628 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 14.743 billion yuan in 2024 and 16.168 billion yuan in 2025 [11]. - The operating profit for 2024 is estimated at 1.749 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.577 billion yuan [11]. Tax Impact - The impact of tax policy on apparent profit is calculated to be -190 million yuan, influenced by the deferred tax asset adjustments [8]. Content and Membership Growth - The company has a strong content pipeline for 2025, with over 100 series planned, including major titles like "Five Blessings Arrive" and "Water Dragon Chant" [8]. - The company aims to maintain a 40% innovation rate in its variety shows, with over 100 shows in development [8]. Market Position - The company is expected to benefit from the performance of its high-quality variety shows and series, which are anticipated to drive membership growth and overall revenue [8].